Tags: Budget | Impasse | Systemic Risk | Global Economy

Societe Generale's Larry McDonald: Budget Impasse Poses 'Systemic Risk to the Global Economy'

Societe Generale's Larry McDonald: Budget Impasse Poses 'Systemic Risk to the Global Economy'
(AP)

By    |   Wednesday, 16 September 2015 07:35 AM

Larry McDonald, of Societe Generale, predicts that the Fed will not move now due to “global systemic risk,” but the “creeping issue” is that the Republican Congress is running out of time to complete action on a continuing resolution to fund the government.

If the Fed doesn’t act, he predicts to CNBC that emerging markets, oil, and utilities “could outperform dramatically.”

Meanwhile, the Dow rose over 200 points ahead of the FOMC meeting, which apparently is a common expression of relief that the Fed will continue to support markets with loose monetary policy.

This writer is amazed that some pundits have come up with bizarre ideas like “one and done.”

Former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said he is joining former Chair Alan Greenspan and investor David Tepper in urging the Fed to begin raising rates, since all of the indicators are at acceptable levels and the markets want to “get rid of this uncertainty.”

Kelly Evans pointed out that if the Fed does raise rates now, there will then be uncertainty about what it will do next.

Fisher insisted that action this week would “reverse the course, start the exit, begin the normalization, that this is Janet Yellen’s big moment and the beginning of her legacy.”

He added “normalizing the Fed’s balance sheet” is the divine mission of Yellen as Fed chair.

He thinks the odds of action are 50-50, and “for the first time in a long time, it will be decided at the table.” Interestingly, Fisher suggested that December would not work, because people need time “to window-dress their books,” and to act then “would create additional volatility.”

When he quoted Vice Chair Stanley Fischer’s assurance that the Fed would still be “massively accommodative,” Evans noted that as Governor of the Bank of Israel Fischer raised rates to 3% and took it back.

Fisher also observed that a big move in 2-year notes may mean markets anticipate a hike and that the banking industry wants to see some margin and the Fed wants “some bullets in its holster.”

In other comments, Peter Boockvar, of The Lindsey Group, says the current market rally supports a rate hike now.

Global strategist David Roche says, “When central banks price money at ridiculous levels, for maybe valid reasons, you reduce the cost of capital and increase the amount of capital chasing the same amount of shares.”

Also, companies have invested in buybacks rather than productivity. Ari Wald, of Oppenheimer, says this rally is “capped to the upside” and needs to build a base. He uses a chart of the S&P 500 to argue that the market is “no longer supported by QE.”

He agreed with Melissa Lee that there could still be a yearend rally, and this writer expects Fed help. As usual, the Fast Money panel is bullish on big banks like B of A, JP Morgan, and Goldman.

Deirdre Bosa checks in from Vancouver with lists of the best and worst movers after a Fed hike.

For those who think insider trading should be legal, Professor Robert Jackson, of Columbia Law School, explains to Kelly Evans how the Fed has used a Sarbanes-Oxley rule to encourage it.

Evans marked the 7th anniversary of the Lehman bankruptcy, and Guy Adami recalled that Lehman was levered “30 to 35-ish.” He said, “I don’t think anything has been solved; I think the problem has just been moved.”

He thinks the Fed is now levered 65:1 and that these are “the least qualified people to have that type of leverage on a balance sheet.”

Evans quoted Stan Druckenmiller as suggesting this is a reason for the Fed to raise rates.

This writer suspects that another Lehman-type event is in the cards for the coming election year, as in 1988 and 2008.

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Robert-Feinberg
Larry McDonald, of Societe Generale, predicts that the Fed will not move now due to “global systemic risk,” but the “creeping issue” is that the Republican Congress is running out of time to complete action on a continuing resolution to fund the government.
Budget, Impasse, Systemic Risk, Global Economy
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2015-35-16
Wednesday, 16 September 2015 07:35 AM
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