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Fast Traders: Rally Is Overbought

Fast Traders: Rally Is Overbought
(Dollar Photo Club)

By    |   Monday, 26 October 2015 07:41 AM

The end of the week saw a further extension of the latest rally by another 150 Dow points, but the Fast Money traders were not as thrilled as one might expect. The panel debated the relative significance of fundamentals versus Fed policy on the eve of another week of both a big dose of earnings reports and the October meeting of the FOMC.

When CNBC substitute host Simon Hobbs asked whether the earnings reports or the Fed meeting would be more important, Guy Adami responded that the earnings mean more, “because I think the Fed meeting is going to be a lot to do about nothing” (he’s right on the latter point).

He recalled that after the first of a series of three Chinese devaluations on August 11, the market “unraveled.” Since then the market has raveled and “retraced the entire level.” Adami declared,

“A lot of this move – all of this move – was based on Draghi’s comments yesterday and some of the rhetoric we heard out of China.” Adami went on to express delight over earnings of Amazon (AMZN) – “Outstanding!” – Microsoft (MSFT) – “Fantastic!” – Google (GOOGL) – “Fantastic!”

Tim Seymour then intervened to agree that the China devaluation stood for the fact that “policy is out of control.” He insisted that, “The Fed to me next week is everything. We may not get a Fed move, but the rhetoric around this meeting, and the pricing and putting the Fed back in play, which remember, in September they basically said, ‘global markets are a mess; we’re worried about volatility, basically about China,’ what’s happened since that time? Everything has gone straight up, volatility’s gone straight down. Why shouldn’t the Fed be back in play?”

Dan Nathan then objected that the markets “actually didn’t go straight up. From September 17 we actually had a 7.5% selloff from the Fed day, September 17, to September 29. So we actually, on the dovish commentary, and the worry about global growth and global volatility, we actually sold off. That’s why I disagree with Guy, and I do think the Fed is really important. I don’t think it matters what S&P 500 earnings are next week – I just don’t think it matters. They just blew them out – this handful of names; they’re so concentrated. It’s all about Fed policy.”

Moderator Hobbs noted that Richard Fisher (sic), the third most important person at the Fed, has said the economy is slowing. Hobbs exclaimed, “There’s no way they’re going to raise rates!” (Hobbs obviously got mixed up. He must have meant Stanley Fischer, the Vice Chairman of the Fed, not his distant relative Richard Fisher, who is the former President of the Dallas Fed.)

Finally, Steve Grasso added, “That’s why the market has rallied so substantially; you have the ECB, China, and the Fed all on the same page. The only thing that could end this rally is if the Fed decided to do one of those ‘sneak attacks’ in December. That would kill the rally.”

Seymour said the week produced “50 S&P points on the back of the ECB and China; this is all about central banks. You now have an S&P which is overbought, very much so, and we haven’t been this overbought since November 2014. This market has to fade next week. Anything from the Fed that makes it still in play – this is a market that’s written off the Fed, and you cannot do that.”

This writer would suggest that the Fed, through its confused policy, has written itself off.

Video of the panel can be found here.

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The Fed, through its confused policy, has written itself off.
cnbc, economy, investors, fed
Monday, 26 October 2015 07:41 AM
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