Tags: oil | bullish | Commitment of Traders | price

Historic Bullish Position in Oil Market

By    |   Tuesday, 04 March 2014 06:52 AM

History was made in the two most recent Commitment of Traders reports for oil.

For the first time in history, the large speculator group has built up a net long position of more than 400,000 contracts.

It is also worth noting that 84 percent of the 342 traders tracked in the report are bullish on oil. For me, this is an alarming number and such a bullish skew leads me to believe that oil is reaching a significant top.

The price has been rising sharply since the first of the year and has logged gains for seven consecutive weeks, and if Monday was any indication, the streak will likely reach eight weeks.

Since the January low, the price of oil has jumped 15 percent to Monday's closing price.

As you can imagine, the winning streak and the overly bullish sentiment has caused the commodity to reach an overbought condition on its daily chart.

With the overbought condition and the overly bullish sentiment, I can't see oil going much higher.

The last time we saw a winning streak of eight weeks was at the end of 2012 and in to 2013. The price dropped more than 10 percent in the three months that followed.

The last time I remember such a bullish skew from the Commitment of Traders report in oil was in the summer of 2008. The price made an incredible drop as it declined more than 75 percent in the next six months.

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History was made in the two most recent Commitment of Traders reports for oil.
oil,bullish,Commitment of Traders,price
Tuesday, 04 March 2014 06:52 AM
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