Scanning the Commitment of Traders reports this weekend, I was paying particular attention to the various Treasury products to see if there had been much of a change since the last Federal Reserve meeting and then the pitiful March employment report.
There was little change to most of the different terms, but the one particular debt instrument that has seen a significant change is the 2-year note.
In the last four weeks, large speculators have made a dramatic shift in the number of contracts they are holding long. During the week of March 17, the group was long less than 20,000 contracts.
Since then, the group has been adding long positions and as of last week they were long 158,146 contracts. This is the first time since March 2013 that the group has been net long more than 150,000 contracts.
Since the beginning of March, the yield on 2-year notes has fallen from 0.73 percent to a low of 0.5 percent.
It is interesting to see this development considering that most investors think the Fed is going to raise rates sooner rather than later. With large speculators going long the notes, they are not expecting rates to rise, but rather buying the bonds now is a sign that they think rates are going down.
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