With investors getting nervous about a possible rate hike by the Federal Reserve within the next six months, I thought it would be worth looking at the Commitment of Traders reports for all different maturities in U.S. debt instruments.
With a focus on large speculators, the breakdown of the sentiment for each debt instrument is as follows:
- 30-day notes: The group has become more bearish in recent weeks, net short over 100,000 contracts in all but one week since July.
- 2-year notes: Net short barely, but net short in all but one week in the last six months.
- 5-year notes: Just moved to net long this past week after six weeks of being net short.
- 10-year note: Increasing short position during the last five weeks, net short in all but two weeks for the last year.
- 30-year bond: Net long, net short, net long in the last three weeks.
The closest thing to a consensus out of large speculators seems to be they are bearish on the shorter time frames, but once you move to the 5-year notes there isn't much commitment in either direction.
While no one is expecting a change in rates at this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, you can bet that the announcement from the Fed will be scrutinized every way possible for any hints of when the hike might come.
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