Tags: Polcari | midterm | elections | stocks

O'Neil's Polcari: Midterm Elections May Provide Boost for Stocks

By    |   Tuesday, 04 November 2014 07:35 AM

The midterm elections will produce either a fully Republican-controlled Congress or a split one as we have now.

"In either case, the consensus is for continued gridlock and frustration," Kenny Polcari, director of NYSE floor operations at O'Neil Securities, writes on CNBC.com. But, "that is not necessarily bad for stocks."

Congress has been largely irrelevant for the past four years, due to its inability to get things done, he says.

"If history is a guide, a Republican win of both houses coupled with a Democratic president should see stocks rally — 16 percent on average over the next six months," Polcari writes.

"This doesn't mean, though, that there won't be any volatility. Sectors to watch include financials, defense contractors, medical device makers and energy. If we remain split, then infrastructure stocks, hospitals, healthcare and alternative energy may be some of the favorites."

Americans appear eager for change. "If so, the market should reward us," Polcari says.

Other notable investors have more definite visions of Tuesday's election outcome.

Former General Electric CEO Jack Welch is enthusiastic about the chances for Republicans regaining control of the Senate and what that could mean for the economy.

"If we can get the right election this time and get some regulation fear off the table, . . . there's a real chance to get to that 4 percent economy that we desperately need to get escape velocity," he told CNBC.

GDP grew 3.5 percent annualized in the third quarter, following 4.6 percent growth in the second quarter.

Many political experts believe the GOP will pick up the six seats it needs to gain control of the Senate. Welch thinks a Republican-controlled Congress could come up with tax and energy reform that President Obama would support.

"I think maybe we can have the parties come together," he said.

Meanwhile, Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ, says the stock market is likely to advance regardless of the elections' outcome.

"In a midterm election year, . . . the Stock Traders’ Almanac shows that the November through April period has risen an average of 15.3 percent since World War II and has advanced 94 percent of the time," he told Yahoo.

"[Stocks gain] about 3 percent in October, 2.5 percent in November and then 2 percent in December."

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The midterm elections will produce either a fully Republican-controlled Congress or a split one as we have now.
Polcari, midterm, elections, stocks
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2014-35-04
Tuesday, 04 November 2014 07:35 AM
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