Nat Silver compared Associated Press 2020 election exit polls and a compilation of national polls in February. President Joe Biden’s lead over former President Donald Trump increased about a percent point among white voters—mostly among college graduates.

Among Blacks and Hispanics, who are decidedly more blue-collar, Mr. Biden still maintains a lead, but it narrowed about 28 and 19 points. That was enough to give Mr. Trump the overall lead in the national popular vote, which remains quite close despite generally improved economic conditions.

Examining voting patterns from the 2012, 2016 and 2022 presidential and 2020 congressional elections an erosion in support for Democrats among minorities includes Asians too.

Progressives sometimes argue that Democrats are not delivering effectively enough on their agenda—affirmative action, childcare, pre-K education and the like. But their broader vision often does not resonate well with enough minority voters to be unsettling.

Only about 30% of Blacks and Hispanics identify as liberal in their outlook. Whereas 70% of those groups identify as conservative or moderate, and may find populist ideas attractive—protectionism, skepticism towards affirmative action, elites and open immigration and so forth.

Affirmative action was conceived by Presidents John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson to lift those who were disadvantaged by the legacy of slavery and segregation.

The country was about 95% White or Black and 5% Asian or Hispanic. As the population changed, progressives increasingly applied the term people of color.

Critical Race Theory emerged, which posits that white culture exhibits enduring prejudices requiring reassessment of the nation’s early history, rewriting school curriculums and aggressive Diversity, Equity and Inclusion enforcement in the workplace.

Those don’t always resonate well with non-white experiences and attitudes.

Hispanic and Asian immigrant families have experienced considerable inter-generational upward mobility.

According to the Pew Trust, most Blacks and Hispanics oppose considering race and ethnicity in hiring and promotions.

Yet, Biden Administration infrastructure, industrial, immigration and other economic policies are keenly attentive to the hard-left’s social justice agenda.

In a recent Fox News poll, despite robust growth, low unemployment and lower inflation 55% of non-white registered voters disapprove of Mr. Biden’s handling of the economy. Among non-college whites, the figure rises to 74% for men and 71% for women.

Fifty-nine percent of non-whites disapproved of the president’s handling of immigration.

An April New York Times poll indicates generally consistent sentiments.

Pulling all this together, it is important to remember that more than half of voters don’t have college degrees.

Neither President Trump nor Biden advocate cutting the social safety net, which greatly assists working-class Americans, and neither advocates higher taxes for lower- and middle-class families.

It’s unlikely that Democrats will win simultaneous control of the Senate, House and Oval Office anytime soon. So heavily taxing the rich may be good campaign fodder but is only a fanciful idea.

Affirmative Action and DEI enforcement in the workplace, at least as it applies to race and ethnicity, will remain under assault—simply, it doesn’t enjoy the support among many it’s intended to most benefit.

With an aging population and national security threats growing, projections that the budget deficit will reach more than 6% of GDP in 2025 are optimistic—it may get a lot worse.

Either the Federal Reserve permits interest rates to rise to ration savings in favor of government spending—and crowds out investments in artificial intelligence, manufacturing and medical science—or it will print more money to purchase the additional debt. The latter would result in more inflation.

China appears intent on subsidizing exports of EVs, batteries and other exports to offset the malaise in domestic consumer sentiments created by its property sector meltdown. Mr. Trump may be more vocal about raising tariffs, but Mr. Biden will feel pressure to act too.

One way or another immigration policy will be tightened too, but how we retreat from globalization will importantly affect living standards.

Indiscriminate industrial policies—excessive subsidies for the auto and other industries—and undiscerningly high tariffs would breed inefficient production and technologically lagging products in America as compared to those made and available in Asia.

Immigration importantly adds to the skills and overall growth of the American workforce and by broadening growth, creates opportunities even for those who see immigrants as competition. Slamming the door too tight would become another limiting wall to progress just like a Trumpian 60% tariff on China or an across the board 10% levy.

Progressives have been operating on the notion that non-whites—no matter their origin or experiences in America—can be organized under the awning of identity politics.

That may be driving them to the Republican but also some of the worst of populist impulses.

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Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.