Tags: Record | Short | Euro | Dollar

Record Short Position on Euro Could Create a Pullback in the Dollar

By    |   Tuesday, 22 May 2012 08:36 AM EDT

The most recent commitment of traders report on the euro shows that large speculators have built the biggest net short position toward the currency ever.

There are 212,344 contracts held short right now compared to only 38,475 contracts held long. The resulting net position is 173,869 contracts on the short side.

If you look at it from a percentage standpoint, 85 percent of large speculators are bearish on the euro. That doesn’t leave much room for additional bearish investors.

This extreme reading in the COT report comes at a time when the U.S. Dollar Index has been rising sharply. In fact, last Friday saw the USDX lose ground for the first time 14 trading sessions. This is the longest winning streak ever for the USDX.

Sure, the debt fears and the potential secessions are weighing heavily on the currency, but how much more bearish can traders get?

Looking at the chart for the USDX, the index is hitting resistance at the 81.75 level right now. It will be hard for the index to break through resistance with such a bearish extreme being displayed by large speculators.

If you are looking for a way to play the currencies without a futures account, there are several ETFs available that would benefit from a pullback in the dollar or a jump in the euro.

The Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE) is an ETF that is bullish on the euro.

Should the euro rally, the FXE should follow suit. The PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund (UDN) is an ETF that is bearish on the USDX. If the dollar starts to fall, the UDN will rise.

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Tuesday, 22 May 2012 08:36 AM
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