Tags: Pendergraft | silver | bullish | outlook

Sentiment Toward Silver Shifts Too Quickly

By    |   Tuesday, 11 Sep 2012 07:52 AM

Back in mid-July, I wrote a bullish piece on silver. The two main reasons for the bullish outlook were the support in the $26.11-$26.30 range and the least optimistic outlook from large speculators in nine years.

That piece was written just over two months ago and at the time, large speculators were net long 6,222 contracts.

Fast forward to today and we see that large speculators are now net long 32,430 contracts and the price of silver has jumped over 23 percent since I wrote the bullish article on July 9.

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The current long position is the biggest net long position since April 2011. If April 2011 rings a bell for you, it should. That is when silver peaked just shy of $50 an ounce.

Silver could still move higher, as the peak long position during the 2011 rally was over 40,000 contracts. But if you went long silver back in July, you might want to take some profits off the table.

Seeing such an extreme shift in the sentiment in such a short period of time is worrisome.

Oddly enough, I also wrote a bullish piece on silver back in January 2011. I followed that up with a bearish piece on May 3, 2011.

The bearish piece was inspired by all the attention that silver was getting from the 'Average Joe.' Whenever an asset class or a particular investment vehicle reaches the point that people of all different backgrounds and occupations are talking about it, the Average Joe indicator is too bullish.

So far during this current rally, silver doesn't seem to be getting too much attention, at least not to the extent it did back in the spring of 2011.

Editor's Note: Join the 3.5% of Americans who are truly wealthy and financially secure.

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Tuesday, 11 Sep 2012 07:52 AM
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