This past week was an interesting one for the main sentiment indicators. We saw the Investors Intelligence bullish percentage make a jump from 39.4 percent to 43.6 percent.
While increases of 4 percentage points happen occasionally, they are rare.
The 21-day moving average on the Chicago Board Options Exchange Equity Put/Call ratio changed dramatically last week as well.
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We saw the trendline drop to 0.67 from 0.70. We also see that the trendline has dropped from 0.75 to 0.67 in the last two months.
While neither of these shifts has put the indicators in overly optimistic territory, such dramatic shifts definitely get my attention.
If we see many more shifts like this, it won’t take long for the indicators to hit extreme levels.
When the market peaked in April, the 21-day moving average on the CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio was bottoming down between 0.60 and 0.61.
The Investors Intelligence bullish percentage peaked at 52.7 percent back in April, but perhaps more importantly was the ratio of bulls to bears peaked at 2.45.
Right now, the ratio of bulls to bears is 1.71. However, if the percentages shift like they did last week, the ratio will jump to 2.05 — just like that, the ratio jumps from 1.42 to 2.05 in only two weeks.
While the indicators aren’t flashing warning signs just yet, we must keep an eye on the rate of change.
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