Tags: Commercial | Hedgers | Bearish | sentiment

Commercial Hedgers Turn More Bearish

By    |   Tuesday, 24 April 2012 09:21 AM

The Commitment of Traders report for the e-mini S&P 500 futures has experienced a disturbing shift in recent weeks. Commercial hedgers moved to a net bearish position two weeks ago and last week’s report showed a bigger net short position.

A hedger is either a producer or user of an actual commodity. A hedger might take a position in a commodity market in anticipation of future sale of cash commodities to protect against declining prices or in anticipation of future purchase of cash commodities to protect against rising prices. For S&P futures, the hedgers would be investment banking firms, brokerage firms and potentially professional portfolio managers if their charter allows it.

The only other week in the past year when commercial hedgers were net short e-mini S&P futures was the week of July 12, 2011. This was just before the market went on a monthlong swoon where the S&P lost more than 16 percent.

The commercial hedgers weren’t the only ones making noticeable moves either. The small speculator group is net long almost 200,000 contracts as a whole and this is the biggest net long position they have had in the past year.

Now I don’t know about you, but if given the choice of whether to side with the commercial hedgers or the small speculators, I am siding with the commercial hedgers.

Not only do commercial hedgers have the money to move the market, they also have a tendency to be right more often than the small speculators.

The biggest net long position for the group came at the beginning of December, right as the S&P was starting its huge four-month rally. Now that they are net short, I would take it as a warning sign.

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Tuesday, 24 April 2012 09:21 AM
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