Tags: trump | crazy | fed | december | economy | hike

What Will Trump's 'Crazy' Fed Do Next With Rate Hikes in December

miniature man holding rate hikes sign standing on us federal reserve emblem on dollars banknote.
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By Tuesday, 16 October 2018 06:54 AM Current | Bio | Archive

President Donald Trump last week lashed out at the Federal Reserve, slamming their recent decision to raise interest rates as “crazy” and “out of control.”

His attacks on the central bank are likely to be ignored by the chair, Jerome Powell, and other policymakers.

What, then, could impact the Fed’s decision on whether to further raise or maintain rates this year?

If the Fed continues to play the same game it has done for the last 20 years or more, it will be taking into account asset price falls.

Wall Street experienced its worst day in eight months last week, with the sharp sell-off subsequently spreading across the world.

Although stocks fell by about 3 percent in a day, which is by any standards quite dramatic, they bounced back pretty quickly.

It is unclear whether this will throw the Fed off its broader trajectory of gradually raising rates. However, I would expect reduced expectations of a December rate hike coming from the market.

In turn, that will ease the pressure on risk assets.

Some on the right think the Fed shouldn’t respond to asset prices, but it does.

This was the so-called Greenspan put of the late 1990s, whereby Alan Greenspan appeared to ease monetary policy whenever stock markets fell.

It won’t be until December that we know if there is a "Powell put" that investors can look forward to, my guess is that there is.

From his point of view, he can afford to support the stock market. After all, inflation is at modest levels, and higher borrowing rates and a strong dollar will be restraining its growth.

Many investors will be using this situation to their advantage – they will be buying on the dips. The long-awaited bond market sell-off isn’t here, and risk free returns are not about to jump high and seriously challenge stock markets.

The Fed has room to ease policy - slow rate hikes and/or reduce its quantitative tightening policy - any of which will be supportive of equities.

A well-diversified portfolio and a good fund manager will help investors capitalize on the opportunities that volatility brings and sidestep potential risks.

Nigel Green is founder and CEO of deVere Group. One of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations, de Vere does business in 100 countries and has more than $12 billion under advisement.

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The Fed has room to ease policy - slow rate hikes and/or reduce its quantitative tightening policy - any of which will be supportive of equities.
trump, crazy, fed, december, economy, hike
Tuesday, 16 October 2018 06:54 AM
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