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Coronavirus: Global Economic Recovery Could Be Reality in 6 Months on 2 Conditions

Coronavirus: Global Economic Recovery Could Be Reality in 6 Months on 2 Conditions

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By Wednesday, 01 April 2020 12:30 PM Current | Bio | Archive

The global economy could be headed for recovery from a coronavirus-sparked downturn within six months.

However, this will only be the case if mass testing is implemented now and governments guarantee to bolster demand.

Global stocks held steady on Tuesday following a rally on hesitant indicators China’s economy is stabilizing as the coronavirus lockdowns are being lifted.

However, they retreated on Wednesday as the pandemic worsened in the U.S.

Following the release of the latest trade report by the UN this week, stating the global economy will go into recession in 2020 with a forecast loss of global income reaching trillions of dollars, the economic fallout from the pandemic is as serious as it is erratic.

We are still unaware of the full extent of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy. That said, a substantial downturn is, unfortunately, somewhat inexorable.

Indications from countries where lockdown restrictions are now being lifted show that the economic downturn could be comparatively ephemeral should certain factors come to light in the near future.

As such, to my mind, the global economy could recover from a coronavirus-triggered downturn within six months, but only if mass testing begins now and governments bolster demand.

The majority of the world is now in phase one, which is lockdown. The unparalleled lockdown measures are greatly decelerating economies as supply and demand are impacted.

Phase two should involve mass testing. A strict mass testing scheme, which may soon get underway in Germany according to reports, would potentially permit millions to leave lockdown early, return to work and help to jump start economies.

Indeed, as soon as the mass testing is launched, supply should increase. However, without demand, economies will remain on a downward trajectory.

The COVID-19 pandemic has been, and will continue to be for a while yet, a hammer blow to consumer confidence.

This is why it is paramount that governments across the globe continue and ramp up their support measures for these unprecedented times.

G20 leaders need to stay committed to fulfilling their promise to do “whatever it takes” to reduce the negative social and economic impact of the pandemic.

Right now, investors will be focusing on China and seeing how the country recovers economically. They will be asking whether the lockdown measures were successful, if the public health facilities were adequate, if another virus outbreak is a possibility post-lockdown, how will the economy be kick started by the authorities and how will this impact the rest of the world.

I believe financial markets across the globe will stage a relief rally when there is a sure-fire indication the infection rate is declining and the number of cases has reached a peak. It is then that investors will move away from the side-lines and prices will rise.

As a result, the upcoming stage in China’s recovery, both in terms of public health and the economy, is crucial.

The next few months are going to be difficult for a lot of people, businesses and sectors. However, there is also hope that we will soon see an economic recovery.

Nonetheless, this is totally reliant on the next two phases. If mass testing is undertaken straight away, we may see indications of a recovery within six months. If this isn’t the case, the downturn could extend far longer.

Therefore, during such unprecedented, turbulent times, investors should review and revise their financial planning strategies to make sure they are still on the right track to hitting their long-term financial objectives.

Nigel Green is founder and CEO of deVere Group. One of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations, de Vere does business in 100 countries and has more than $12 billion under advisement.

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NigelGreen
During such unprecedented, turbulent times, investors should review and revise their financial planning strategies to make sure they are still on the right track to hitting their long-term financial objectives.
coronavirus, global, economic, recovery, virus
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2020-30-01
Wednesday, 01 April 2020 12:30 PM
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