Tags: stock market | value | decline | investors

Technical and Fundamental Analysis Pointing to Short-Term Market Drop

By    |   Wednesday, 10 June 2015 09:19 AM

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 gained 0.04 percent. This was the tenth consecutive day of low volatility in the index. In the past, extended periods of low volatility have ended with significant down moves.

This is the sixth time volatility has remained low for at least two weeks in the past year. In this case, low volatility is defined as at least ten consecutive days without a one-day 1 percent move in the index.

On the five previous occasions, stocks declined an average of 4.3 percent over the next eight trading days.

This is certainly a short-term indicator and is useful only for traders. Long-term investors ignore price moves lasting just a few weeks.

But long-term investors should still be concerned about the state of the current market. Investors unconcerned with the technicals should be concerned that earnings estimates continue to decline.

Standard & Poor’s analysts expect the companies in the S&P 500 index to report earnings per share of $115.93 in 2015. This estimate has been decreased by 16 percent over the past year.

Based on the current estimate, the S&P 500 is trading with a price-to-earning (P/E) ratio of 18.

Midcap stocks are priced at 21 times estimated earnings and small caps are trading with a P/E ratio of 24. These P/E ratios are all high based on their historic averages.

Based on the fundamentals, the current stock market is overvalued. Short-term technical indicators say a decline is likely to begin soon. Now is likely not the best time to be buying stocks.

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MichaelCarr
Based on the fundamentals, the current stock market is overvalued. Short-term technical indicators say a decline is likely to begin soon. Now is likely not the best time to be buying stocks.
stock market, value, decline, investors
255
2015-19-10
Wednesday, 10 June 2015 09:19 AM
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