Gold’s safe-haven trade may have finally gotten its mojo back.
While trade war jitters have caused a meltdown in equity markets, gold has reaped the benefit. Gold prices have continued their precipitous climb since rising above $1,300 an ounce on May 31, when President Donald Trump said he planned to impose a 5% tariff on all Mexican goods. The S&P/TSX Global Gold Sector Index has now added C$17.8 billion in market value ($13.3 billion) over the past four days, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Gold stocks have been a safer bet than materials this year for investors in Canada. The S&P/TSX Global Gold Sector Index has gained 6.8% so far in 2019 while materials are up only 5%, the worst performance among the eleven sectors in Canada’s benchmark index.
Market strategists have recommended investors stay defensive amid trade fears. Haywood strategist Keith Edwards said one way to do this is to accumulate gold and gold stocks. Some of the top performing gold miners this year have been mid-tier companies including Alacer Gold Corp. and Semafo Inc., which are both up about 62%, and Alamos Gold, which is up 43%.
Macro challenges may need to persist for gold to truly outshine other asset classes. “We could be in the early innings of an outperformance cycle,” said Canaccord’s portfolio strategist Martin Roberge. He recommends investors overweight gold stocks for now but says it “could lose its luster” if prices break above $1,360 a share.
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