Tags: Kilduff | Oil | crude | price

Again Capital’s Kilduff: Oil Could Plunge to $68 a Barrel

Wednesday, 27 Jun 2012 11:03 AM

U.S. oil prices are currently trading around $79 a barrel, and cooling global economies could pull prices down much lower to around $68 a barrel, says John Kilduff, founding partner of Again Capital.

Adding to the bearish pressure on the commodity are healthy supply levels — the world is pumping 91.1 million barrels per day, the most ever, CNBC reports.

Furthermore, the Federal Reserve has held off on stimulating the U.S. economy via an unorthodox monetary policy tool known as quantitative easing, under which the Fed purchases bonds held by banks, pumping the economy full of liquidity in the process to spur recovery.

A lot of that liquidity can end up in commodity markets and send oil rising.

"If the central banks stay put, they may see that oil is helping them out. $68 is not unconceivable," Kilduff tells CNBC.

Watch for West Texas Intermediate (WTI), also known as Texas light sweet, oil to break $78 a barrel as a sign for fresh downturns.

Should that happen, the commodity will seek a new support base at $72 a barrel followed by $68 a barrel, Kilduff adds. (WTI is the underlying commodity of Chicago Mercantile Exchange's oil futures contracts.)

Other experts agree that oil is on its way down with some upward spikes along the way as investors sell other assets for profits and snap up nicely priced oil positions.

"I think the slide is going to begin to tail a little. I wouldn't be surprised to see some profit-taking rebounds. The direction for the market tends to be lower, and until we get some better economic conditions, the market is hunting for a bottom," says Gene McGillian of Tradition Energy, CNBC adds.

Oil companies have throttled back on production, as cheaper prices make drilling less profitable.

"Significantly rising U.S. oil production in the face of weaker global oil demand growth is on track to drive oil prices lower in 2013," says Raymond James analyst J. Marshall Adkins, according to the Associated Press.

"As a result, we believe that U.S. drilling activity must eventually come down in order to rein in supply growth to help balance the market," Adkins says, adding onshore rig activity could drop by 22.5 percent from now until the end of 2013.





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2012-03-27
Wednesday, 27 Jun 2012 11:03 AM
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