Tags: Short | economy | indicators | industrial production

Analyst Short: 4 Indicators Signal 'Economy Remains Near Stall Speed'

By    |   Thursday, 19 March 2015 07:00 AM

While some analysts are enthusiastic about the economy after it grew 2.4 percent last year,
 
Four important statistics show weakness in the economy, he says. Those are industrial production, real personal income, employment and retail sales.
 
"The overall picture of the U.S. economy has been one of slow recovery from the Great Recession with a clearly documented contraction during the winter of 2013-2014," he wrote in a commentary.
 
"In April we'll get our first peak at Q1 2015 GDP. Preliminary data suggests that we'll see renewed finger pointing at the weather. The Big Four [indicators] average in recent months suggests that the economy remains near stall speed."
 
Industrial production climbed only 0.1 percent in February, after dropping 0.3 percent in January.
 
Personal income rose 0.3 percent in January. Unemployment totaled 5.5 percent in February, and retail sales have fallen for three straight months, including 0.6 percent in February.
 
Meanwhile, Steve Beaman, chairman of the Society to Advance Financial Education, told Newsmax TV that we still face the risk of a recession.
 
And what leaves that possibility open? "It's the reality that the Federal Reserve wants to raise rates right now," Beaman told the network's "MidPoint" show. Economists' consensus forecast is that the Fed will begin lifting interest rates around mid-year.
 
The central bank has kept its federal funds rate target at a record low of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008
 
The stock market has slumped over the last couple weeks, Beaman noted, with the S&P 500 index sliding 2.4 percent from its March 2 record high.
 
Other negative factors for the economy: the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dipped to 91.2 in March, a four-month low, from 95.4 in February, and consumer borrowing is falling, Beaman said.
 
The last recession took place in 2007-09. Prior to that, recessions occurred in 2001 and 1990-91.

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While some analysts are enthusiastic about the economy after it grew 2.4 percent last year, Doug Short, vice president of research at Advisor Perspectives, begs to differ.
Short, economy, indicators, industrial production
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2015-00-19
Thursday, 19 March 2015 07:00 AM
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