Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones joined hedge fund managers Rob Citrone and Jeff Vinik in warning that the stock market would tank over the prospect of an Elizabeth Warren presidency.
The S&P 500 Index will drop about 25% if the Democratic senator wins the 2020 election, mostly because of concern over her proposed wealth tax, Jones said Monday at the Robin Hood Investors Conference in New York, according to people with knowledge of his presentation.
Jones, citing an internal poll at his macro hedge fund Tudor Investment Corp., also said economic growth in the U.S. would fall to 1% from estimates of more than 2% this year.
Warren, who advocates for a 2% tax on America’s richest families, “Medicare for all” and new regulations on private equity, is stoking fear on Wall Street as she’s gained momentum in a huge field of candidates for the Democratic nomination.
Macro hedge fund manager Citrone, who runs the $2.5 billion Discovery Capital Management, said last week that she could send the market down 10% and 20% if she’s leading the way into the February primaries.
Vinik, who rose to fame as the manager of the Fidelity Magellan fund, told Bloomberg that if Warren’s candidacy keeps gaining momentum, “the market is going to have a lot of agita” -- which could be a buying opportunity.
Her self-described “democratic socialist” opponent, Bernie Sanders, would cause the markets to tumble about 20%, Jones said. Warren’s more centrist opponents for the nomination Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar would drag down the market by around 10%, he told the audience.
Meanwhile, Jones said, the re-election of President Donald Trump would boost the S&P to 3,600 -- representing an 18% jump from the index’s record high of 3,039 as of the end of trading Monday.
The veteran hedge fund manager, who added that he has no idea who will win the election and has no strong feeling on the market, is continuing to bet on gold, he told the audience.
The former cotton trader told Bloomberg in June that gold was his favorite pick for the next 12 to 24 months, and prices for the precious metal have since jumped about 11%. He also said Monday that he expects another U.S. interest rate cut and some profit-taking to follow, then a market rally to finish the year.
At a gala last week, Jones, 65, raved about Democratic presidential candidate Buttigieg, saying of the 37-year-old mayor of South Bend, Indiana: “He’s my man.”
“I love Pete, I love Mayor Pete, because I think he would be the best administrator to run this country, and he’s got a compassionate heart,” Jones, who has given to both Republicans and Democrats in the past, added at the gala. “I’m not politically active at all. But right now he’s getting me excited.”
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