Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones warns that the stock market will decline if any Democrat wins the 2020 presidential election.
He says investors will assume a Democrat will raise taxes.
“I think the stock market will definitely decline because that will assume that it’s going to be accompanied by a raise in taxes,” Jones told CNBC.
He explained that the severity of the market plunge if a Democrat wins will depend on the candidate. “Yes, it will decline somewhat,” he continued. “I don’t know necessarily if the economy’s going to contract. We’ll have to see what happens.”
However, Jones said an “explosive” combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus is driving the stock market higher.
“We’ve got a 5% deficit coupled with the lowest real rates that you can image with the economy at full employment,” he said. “That’s the most unorthodox, and potentially explosive, combination that you can imagine.”
Jones said last week that a poll at his investment firm showed employees believe the stock market would swoon 25% if Sen. Elizabeth Warren wins, Bloomberg reported.
Tudor Jones joins hedge fund managers Rob Citrone and Jeff Vinik in warning that the stock market would tank over the prospect of an Elizabeth Warren presidency.
Jones, citing an internal poll at his macro hedge fund Tudor Investment Corp., also said economic growth in the U.S. would fall to 1% from estimates of more than 2% this year.
Warren, who advocates for a 2% tax on America’s richest families, “Medicare for all” and new regulations on private equity, is stoking fear on Wall Street as she’s gained momentum in a huge field of candidates for the Democratic nomination.
Macro hedge fund manager Citrone, who runs the $2.5 billion Discovery Capital Management, said last week that she could send the market down 10% and 20% if she’s leading the way into the February primaries.
Vinik, who rose to fame as the manager of the Fidelity Magellan fund, told Bloomberg that if Warren’s candidacy keeps gaining momentum, “the market is going to have a lot of agita” -- which could be a buying opportunity.
Her self-described “democratic socialist” opponent, Bernie Sanders, would cause the markets to tumble about 20%, Jones said. Warren’s more centrist opponents for the nomination Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar would drag down the market by around 10%, he told the audience.
Meanwhile, Jones said, the re-election of President Donald Trump would boost the S&P to 3,600 -- representing an 18% jump from the index’s record high of 3,039 as of the end of trading Monday.
The veteran hedge fund manager, who added that he has no idea who will win the election and has no strong feeling on the market, is continuing to bet on gold, he told the audience.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump delivered a stump speech aimed at Wall Street, touting his economic record to an audience of executives and economists while warning that a Democratic victory in 2020 would endanger stock market gains.
Trump's speech before the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday was a collection of the president’s well-worn lines on the economy that he’s delivered in tweets, to reporters at the White House and at campaign events around the country.
Trump reiterated complaints about the Federal Reserve -- saying higher interest rates put the U.S. at a “competitive disadvantage” while offering little new clarity about trade negotiations with China, warning that the country faces massive new tariffs if a deal isn’t finalized soon.
Instead, the president said that the lower taxes, higher employment rates and market gains under his administration would disappear if he’s defeated.
“I am proud to stand before you as president of the United States to report that we have delivered on our promises and exceeded our expectations by a very wide margin,” he said. “We have ended the war on American workers, we have stopped the assault on American industry, and we have launched an economic boom the likes of which we have never seen before.”
Trump’s protectionist approach to trade and penchant for controversy have long made him anathema to many on Wall Street. But he sought to depict his candidacy as the natural choice for investors who wanted to protect the gains they’ve realized since he took office -- the S&P 500 is up about 36% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained about 40%.
The president drew explicit contrast to his potential political opponents, characterizing them as radicals. He spoke as Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden struggles to fend off challenges from Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders – who have proposed massive government intervention in parts of the U.S. economy – as well as Pete Buttigieg, the relatively unknown mayor of South Bend, Indiana. Biden holds a lead in national polls but lags in states with early primaries and caucuses.
“Look at what I’m competing with on the other side,” Trump said of Democratic policy proposals, quipping the candidates “have gone loco.”
The economy could propel Trump, despite an electorate that largely disapproves of his presidency, according to polls.
A majority of Americans -- 52% -- approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, while just 43% said they disapproved, according to a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released late last month. That represents a six-point net improvement from the same survey in August, and far outpaces the president’s overall approval rating of 45%.
The president and his top campaign officials have pointed to economic models that show he should have an easier path to re-election than many analysts say. Forecasts from Yale University professor Ray Fair, Oxford Economics Ltd. and Moody’s Analytics Inc. see Trump buoyed by steady economic growth and a tight labor market.
Trump said Tuesday that U.S. economic success had enabled him to address “some of the horrible, incompetent, just terrible trade deals that have been made over the years and make them great” -- prompting applause from the audience.
This report uses material from the AP, Bloomberg and Reuters.
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