Tags: Gundlach | Treasury | Fed | rates

Gundlach: 50/50 Odds of Rate Hike as Treasury Volatility Falls

Gundlach: 50/50 Odds of Rate Hike as Treasury Volatility Falls
Janet Yellen, chair of the Federal Reserve (Photo: AP file)

Friday, 13 May 2016 02:46 PM

Jeffrey Gundlach said there’s a 50 percent chance the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.

Yields will rise over the next decade, said Gundlach, the chief executive of DoubleLine Capital LP in Los Angeles, in a webcast Thursday. U.S. 30-year yields will climb past 6 percent, he said, from 2.58 percent Friday. The DoubleLine Core Fixed Income Fund returned 2.9 percent in the past 12 months, beating 57 percent of its peers, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Traders are scaling back forecasts for a Fed move in 2016 as U.S. inflation falls short of the central bank’s target. Futures contracts indicate the odds are in line with Gundlach’s call, plunging from more than 90 percent in January. Some investors say the Fed will be on hold all year. Two regional Fed presidents usually on opposing sides of the policy debate made separate but similar cases Thursday for a rate increase.

“The chance of a Fed increase is definitely zero, and I don’t think I’m an outlier” said Yusuke Ito, the senior investor in Tokyo for Mizuho Asset Management, which oversees about $46 billion. “Yields are going south.”

The benchmark 10-year note yield fell two basis points to 1.73 percent as of 7:24 a.m. in London, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The price of the 1.625 percent security due in May 2026 climbed 7/32, or $2.19 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 1/32.

Volatility in the U.S. bond market is falling along with the odds of a Fed move. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch MOVE Index, which measures price swings in U.S. debt, declined to 63.92, the lowest level since the end of 2014, before the release of reports Friday on retail sales, producer prices and consumer sentiment.

The annual change in the Commerce Department’s price index tied to personal spending, one of the measures the Fed uses to gauge inflation watch, has been below the central bank’s 2 percent target for four years.

Remarks by Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and the Kansas City Fed’s Esther George hinted at a potential consensus between hawks and doves on the Federal Open Market Committee around the need for action. Both are voters on the FOMC this year.


© Copyright 2019 Bloomberg News. All rights reserved.

   
1Like our page
2Share
StreetTalk
Jeffrey Gundlach said there's a 50 percent chance the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.Yields will rise over the next decade, said Gundlach, the chief executive of DoubleLine Capital LP in Los Angeles, in a webcast Thursday. U.S. 30-year yields will climb...
Gundlach, Treasury, Fed, rates
369
2016-46-13
Friday, 13 May 2016 02:46 PM
Newsmax Media, Inc.
 

Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, and Newsmax World are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

NEWSMAX.COM
MONEYNEWS.COM
© Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved