Tags: EU | Europe | Financial | Crisis

Europe Debt Crisis Rolls On as Irish Bailouts Grow

Thursday, 30 September 2010 11:28 AM

Europe's debt crisis dumped more woe on Ireland's shellshocked taxpayers Thursday, as the government announced it must pour 12 billion euros ($16 billion) more of their money into a crippled banking system.

Coupled with the downgrade of Spain's bonds by a third ratings agency, the news from Dublin provided more evidence that Europe has not shed the debt troubles — which shook the continent this spring as Greece teetered on the edge of bankruptcy.

Irish government leaders described the total bill to fix their banks, about 45 billion euros ($61 billion), as "horrible." The bailout will swell Ireland's deficit this year to a staggering 32 percent of economic output, the biggest in post-World War II Europe.

Yet markets seemed to find solace in the view that Ireland at least had come clean about the worst of its troubles. Irish government bonds rose, while losses were limited on European stock markets and European Union officials expressed confidence in what Ireland had done.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan announced that Ireland will pump 6.4 billion euros into Anglo Irish Bank, 3 billion euros into Allied Irish Bank and 2.7 billion euros into Irish Nationwide Building Society.

He said, based on Irish Central Bank conclusions published Thursday, the government expects to spend a total of 45 billion euros in resurrecting five banks — equivalent to 10,000 euros for every man, woman and child in Ireland. Of the five, only Bank of Ireland will require no new state aid.

"This is a horrible legacy, the figures are numbing, and one would really wish we didn't have this legacy from our property bubble and our banking system. But we had it, we have to deal with it," said the government's communications minister, Eamon Ryan.

Irish banks borrowed heavily from foreign lenders and plowed the money into Ireland's overheated property market — then papered over the true scale of the wreckage when the global credit crisis broke the real-estate bubble two years ago.

"Some of the banks have spent a considerable period of time trying to conceal the existence of these losses," Lenihan said.

Meanwhile, Moody's Investor Services cut Spain's public debt rating, an expected move that nonetheless provided a further sign that Europe will be slow to emerge from its debt crisis.

The European Union welcomed Ireland's harsh assessment as designed to consume as much bitter medicine as possible now. Lenihan said the government was determined to return to 3 percent deficit spending — the European Union's much-violated limit — by 2014 and would publish a four-year plan in November that will mean even harsher spending cuts for his recession-hit country.

EU competition commissioner Joaquin Almunia said Lenihan's announcement "brings clarity" and foresaw EU approval for Ireland's attempt to conclude its two-year bailout struggle.

And EU monetary commissioner Olli Rehn said he doubted that Ireland would need emergency aid from a rescue fund established earlier this year by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The fund had to step in to save Greece from defaulting, but Ireland has already secured sufficient funds through mid-2011 and insists it won't need external aid.

The Irish bailouts represent "a one-off cost measure that will be reflected in this year's deficit figures," Rehn said. "It is really large but manageable on condition that Ireland can ... present a convincing multiannual fiscal strategy covering the years 2011-2014."

Many Irish are dismayed at having to pay, however. On Wednesday a protester blocked the gates to parliament with a cement truck painted with the slogan "TOXIC BANK."

The international investors who have driven Ireland's cost of borrowing to euro-era highs this year reacted positively.

The yield paid out on 10-year Irish treasuries fell from its 6.9 percent high Thursday to 6.77 percent at midday, still 4.5 points above benchmark German bonds. Ireland is considered the second-riskiest national borrower in Europe behind Greece.

Lenihan said Ireland must accept an even more severe 2011 budget than previously signaled.

The Irish already have imposed three emergency budgets since 2008 that have raised taxes and cut wages across this country of 4.5 million, and the budget to be unveiled Dec. 7 was expected to involve euro3 billion more in cuts. Lenihan said those cuts now must go even deeper but declined to discuss specific ideas.

The Central Bank said the government should provide a total of 29.3 billion euros to Ireland's most indebted financial institution, the nationalized Anglo Irish Bank. That is 6.4 billion euros more beyond the 22.9 billion euros it has already committed.

Lenihan said Ireland could not afford to trim its costs by requiring holders of Anglo's senior bonds to eat some of the losses. Ireland has stuck doggedly since 2008 to the view that the top foreign investors in Ireland must be insured against losses, because defaulting would spook investors.

"We have to fund ourselves as a state with senior debt. And other banks have to fund themselves with senior debt," Lenihan said. "You cannot send out a message in an economy like Ireland that senior debt can be dishonored. We're far too dependent on international investment."

However, he said the government would negotiate cut-rate settlements with Anglo's most junior holders of "subordinated" bonds with a face value of 2.4 billion euros. This could reduce Ireland's estimated 29.3 billion euro price tag for Anglo by a billion or two.

The biggest surprise in Thursday's announcement was confirmation that Ireland has conceded it will effectively nationalize Allied Irish Banks, once the country's largest financial institution but now so weakened by loan write-offs that it cannot borrow on international markets.

Allied Irish has been trying to prevent majority state ownership by selling off its foreign assets, including a Polish bank and a stake in M&T Bank of New York. But the Central Bank report dramatically raised Allied Irish's cash requirements by the end of the year to 10.4 billion euros, up from Irish regulators' previous requirement of 7.4 billion euros.

As a result, two senior Allied Irish executives announced their resignations Thursday and Lenihan said the government expected to fund that 3 billion euro shortfall in addition to its existing euro3.5 billion investment.

Analysts said the outcome would mean the mass issuing of new Allied Irish shares to the government, creating a stake exceeding 90 percent.

In response, the value of Allied Irish shares plummeted more than 30 percent on the Dublin stock exchange.

The Central Bank announced that another state-seized Dublin lender, Irish Nationwide, also will receive 2.7 billion euros more, doubling the amount already spent by the government to keep it afloat.

The government plans to split Anglo into two banks, one to retain its deposits, the other to manage the disposal of 37 billion euros in largely defaulting loans on property assets in Ireland, Britain and the United States.

The Central Bank warned that, under "a severe hypothetical stress scenario," the long-term Anglo bailout bill could reach 34.3 billion euros.

The bank said this worst-case scenario would involve the bank's loans on property-based assets losing 65 percent of their original value and remaining at that level in 2020. Ireland's property prices are currently 35 percent to 50 percent below their 2007 peaks.

Irish Nationwide is expected to be sold to foreign investors or merged with one of Ireland's two remaining healthy banks, Bank of Ireland or Irish Life & Permanent.

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Europe's debt crisis dumped more woe on Ireland's shellshocked taxpayers Thursday, as the government announced it must pour 12 billion euros ($16 billion) more of their money into a crippled banking system.Coupled with the downgrade of Spain's bonds by a third ratings...
Thursday, 30 September 2010 11:28 AM
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