Tags: Detrick | bull | market | stock

Schaeffer's Detrick: Bull Market Is Just Getting Started

By    |   Thursday, 27 February 2014 01:11 PM

The current bull market could last another 15 years, according to Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research, who believes the stock rally that started in 2009 is just getting warmed up.

In a column for Yahoo, Detrick asserted that March 2009 was the true bottom in the current cycle, adding that that was only five years ago.

"With more new all-time highs on the horizon, I still hear talk how this is a secular bear market. I don't know how anyone can say that with a straight face, but they do.

Editor’s Note:
38 Trades That Could Turn $1,000 Into $49,000

"Not to mention bulls are still crushed on the social web for being bullish. That is very longer-term bullish to me."

Detrick looked to stock market performance going back to 1910 to make his case.

He noted the current 10-year annualized return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average is only 5 percent.

"In fact, bull markets don't end until closer to 15- to 20-year runs, and an annualized run of closer to 15 percent."

At Charles Schwab, Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders agrees the Dow has further to go despite being up more than 120 percent since early 2009.

"I think what started five years ago was the beginning of a secular bull market, not just a cyclical bull within an ongoing bear," she told Yahoo.

Sonders believes the economy is strong enough for the Federal Reserve to remove the training wheels of massive stimulus.

"I think the market wants to see tapering. I think it wants to see monetary policy move toward normalization and we are well past the point where a Fed having to open up the bazooka again would be good for the market."

One lingering question in Sonders' mind, however, has to do with the impact the harsh winter has had on the nation's economy. "If you look at the history of lengthy periods of weather-hit economies, it tends to be about a 75 percent to 80 percent recovery in the next quarter or two from the pent-up demand from the lost output."

Of course, there are still many analysts who take a dimmer view of the market's prospects than Detrick or Sonders do.

In a commentary published on Mish's Global Trend Analysis blog, Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank in Denmark, sounded a bell for the bears.

Jakobsen predicted a China slowdown, negative growth for Germany and European deflation are all coming in 2014.

The United States will not go unscathed under Jakobsen's scenario. He is forecasting a 30 percent correction in the U.S. market in the second half of 2014, after the S&P 500 registers a high of 1,840 to 1,890.

Editor’s Note: 38 Trades That Could Turn $1,000 Into $49,000

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The current bull market could last another 15 years, according to Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research, who believes the stock rally that started in 2009 is just getting warmed up.
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2014-11-27
Thursday, 27 February 2014 01:11 PM
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