Tags: david n frazier | investment | stocks | profit

Frazier: Here Are the Stocks to Pick If You Want to Make Money

By    |   Wednesday, 13 Aug 2014 01:58 PM

I've written numerous articles on individual stocks over the past eight months, including articles on Apple (AAPL), Twitter (TWTR), Netflix (NFLX), Ford (F), General Motors (GM), Caterpillar (CAT), Bank of America (BAC), BestBuy (BBY), JCPenney (JCP) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG).

I've always told you exactly what I thought about the companies and stocks that I've covered based on my thorough research and analysis of those companies and their stocks.

And instead of telling you what I thought “could” or “might” happen to any given company’s stock, I’ve been very clear about whether or not I thought you should buy, avoid, or sell short the company’s stock.

Editor's Note:
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Although I was wrong about the future direction of some of the stocks that I’ve covered, considerably more of the stocks that I recommended during the past eight months have appreciated in value than the number of ones that have declined in value.

Specifically, 63 percent of the stocks that I recommended buying (or selling short) have risen in value, while only 28 percent of the stocks that I recommended have declined in value. The remaining 9 percent of my 32 recommendations were essentially unchanged as of last Friday's close.

Perhaps more importantly, 11 of the stocks that I recommended purchasing (or selling short) have appreciated by more than 20 percent in value, with a 65.7 percent gain on 3D Systems (DDD) — which I recommended selling short on Jan. 30 — and a 55.6 percent gain on athenahealth (ATHN) – which I recommended selling short on March 5.

Meanwhile, only four of the stocks that I recommended have declined by more than 20 percent in value, ranging from a 27.3 percent drop in TASER International (TASR) to a 39.5 percent decline in the value of my recommended short position in Tesla Motors (TSLA).

Looking ahead, I’m confident that an even a greater percentage of my stock recommendations will turn out to be winners, as 73 percent of the stocks that I recommended to my newsletter subscribers during the past few years had generated a positive return as of Aug. 8.

That being said, I've become very concerned about the future direction of stocks, with my research indicating that stock prices, in general, will move in a volatile sideways pattern, at best, through the remainder of this year.

Fortunately, I expect any such sideways movement to create numerous money-making opportunities over the next several months. But, in order to profit from those opportunities you'll need to know how to take advantage of short-term pullbacks and rallies in the stock market.

Therefore, in the stock articles that I plan to write during the next few months, I'll likely discuss numerous short-term trading statistics that are associated with those stocks.

However, I'll continue to also review any given company's operations, revenues, earnings and valuation metrics.

I expect many of the articles that I write to be about stocks that I already covered, from a fundamental perspective, during the past eight months. By doing so, you'll be familiar with my general reasoning for recommending any given company and its stock. However, I'll also write about numerous other stocks that meet my short-term trading criteria.

And, I’ll continue to write about stocks of widely-followed companies, as well as stock that are “in the news.” I’ll also write about stocks with which you might not be familiar, but that appear to be poised to generate some substantial gains during a short period of time — stocks such as MercadoLibre (MELI), which has risen by a whopping 33 percent since May 20, and that jumped by 14.5 percent on Aug. 8, as compared to the prior day's close. (Click here to read the article that I wrote on MELI on July 25).

Stocks of companies that are currently on my radar include TASER International (TASER) and Yandex (YNDX), which I’ve written about previously, as well as the following companies and their stocks:
  • Jiayuan.com (DATE), the operator of China's leading online dating site, which holds a 43 percent market share in China and boasts more than 40 million registered members.
  • Silicom Ltd. (SILC), an Israeli-based technology company that designs and manufactures products that enable standard servers to be configured as network appliances, and
  • Annie's Inc. (BNNY), an organic natural food producer that provides approximately 125 organic food products, including organic macaroni and cheese, breakfast cereals, fruit snacks, organic granola bars, and natural salad dressings and condiments.
With my initial research indicating that Silicom and Annie’s possess all of the criteria that other companies seek when they’re considering acquisition candidates, I expect SILC and BNNY to move substantially higher within the next six months than they’re trading currently.

In regard to the stocks that I recommended during the past eight months, I would advise those of you who bought or sold short any of those stocks to continue to hold the following stocks long or short:

Long Recommendations – Continue to Hold

  • Bank of America (BAC)
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)
  • Lumber Liquidators (LL)
  • TASER International (TASR)
  • The Priceline Group (PCLN)
  •  Yandex (YNDX)
Avoid and/or Selll-Short Recommendations – Continue to Avoid or to Sell Short

  • 3D Systems (DDD)
  • athenahealth (ATHN)
  • Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)
  • Embraer (ERJ)
  • General Motors (GM)
  • GoPro (GPRO)
  • HomeAway (AWAY)
  • Netflix (NFLX)
  • Panera Bread (PNRA)
  • Rovi Corp. (ROVI)
  • SanDisk (SNDK)
  • Tesla Motors (TSLA)
  • Twitter (TWTR)

Meanwhile, I would advise you to sell the following stocks that I had recommended previously for purchase:

  • Ambarella (AMBA)
  • Apple (AAPL)
  • Best Buy (BBY)
  • Caterpillar (CAT)
  • Ford (F)
  • J.C. Penney (JCP)
  • Joy Global (JOY)
  • Lennar (LEN)
  • MercadoLibre (MELI)
  • Tata Motors (TTM)
  • TripAdvisor (TRIP)

And, I would advise you to cover any short positions in CARBO Ceramics (CRR) and Facebook (FB).

Editor's Note: Seniors Scoop Up Unclaimed $20,500 Checks? (See if You qualify)

David N. Frazier has an extensive background in the investment securities industry and has invested in the financial markets for more than 25 years.

In addition to working as a business analyst, merchant banking analyst and equity research analyst, he’s held positions in sales and marketing at institutional investment firms, including William O’Neil & Co., TDAmeritrade, and Merrill Lynch.

David now serves as the President and Chief Market Strategist of Frazier & Mayer Research, LLC (dba www.TheMarketMonk.com), an independent investment research firm that provides research and analytical services to hedge funds, investment advisory firms, and other investment newsletters.


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Frazier: We're off to a Good Start with My Stock Articles, with 63 percent of my Recommendations Moving Higher over the Past 8 Months
david n frazier, investment, stocks, profit
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2014-58-13
Wednesday, 13 Aug 2014 01:58 PM
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