Tesla Motors Inc., the electric-car maker led by Elon Musk, should report second-quarter Model S sales gains in China that compensate for softer European demand, Barclays Plc analyst Brian Johnson said.

The company will probably meet its forecast of delivering 7,500 of the cars during the quarter, said Johnson, who rates Palo Alto, California-based Tesla the equivalent of a hold. Achieving that goal will be the result of China-bound shipments, he said in a research note Monday.

Initial quarterly delivery data from the Asian nation “demonstrate the increased importance that China will need to play in meeting Model S guidance for 2014 to compensate for apparently plateauing demand in Europe and North America,” Johnson said. “A solid debut in China appears to have compensated for a softening in Europe.”

Musk, 43, traveled to China in April to mark the start of deliveries of Tesla’s flagship sedan to the world’s biggest auto market. The company’s chief executive officer and biggest shareholder has said Tesla’s sales volume in China may match that of the U.S. as early as 2015.

The U.S. company may have delivered as many as 1,300 units in China during the quarter, Johnson said, citing Chinese media reports. Tesla hasn’t said when it will release second-quarter results.

Tesla shares fell 2.9 percent to $222.66 Monday in New York. The stock had risen 52 percent this year through Thursday.