Tags: Authers | 2014 | risk | Fed

FT's Authers: 6 Things That Could Go Wrong in 2014

By    |   Monday, 16 December 2013 07:34 AM

While some financial commentators are offering upbeat forecasts for 2014, Financial Times columnist John Authers cites six possible booby traps for global economies and markets next year.

1. European deflation. "The consensus is calling for growth of about 1 percent in the eurozone economy next year, with benign inflation. It would not take much to miss these targets," Authers writes.

2. Trouble in Japan. What if the government's aggressive monetary policy doesn't work out so well? Authers asks.

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3. Problems in BIITS — Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa. Those are big emerging markets with major current account deficits.

4. Falling oil prices. While lower oil prices would help consumers and some companies, they would hurt countries that rely on oil exports, such as Russia, Authers writes.

5. Trouble in the Treasury market. A tapering of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing could cause trouble. "A swift rise toward 5 percent [on the 10-year Treasury yield], as the market overreacted to a Fed announcement, could put everything else at risk," Authers says.

6. A bursting of China's credit/property bubble. "It is some decades since any money could be made by betting against China, but the risks remain," he writes.

As for the bullish view, global economic growth will gain at least 3.4 percent next year from less than 3 percent in 2013, amid improvements in Europe, China and other emerging markets, according to economists at Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg reports.

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While some financial commentators are offering upbeat forecasts for 2014, Financial Times columnist John Authers cites six possible booby traps for global economies and markets next year.
Authers,2014,risk,Fed
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2013-34-16
Monday, 16 December 2013 07:34 AM
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