Joel Naroff



Aug 17, 2018
The solid manufacturing sector and continued consumer spending hold out hope that third quarter growth will be good, though maybe not great.


Aug 10, 2018
Real (inflation-adjusted) wages went nowhere in July and over-the-year, they were down. That is, household purchasing power is declining. Even when you add in rising hours worked, income was up minimally since July 2017.


Aug 3, 2018
Despite a disappointing jobs number, the labor market remains strong.


Aug 2, 2018
Given the Fed’s evaluation of current and future growth, rate hikes are likely in September, December and possibly as many as four more next year, unless the economy decelerates sharply.


Aug 1, 2018
The job market continues to be on fire even as manufacturing and construction start settling down into more sustainable levels.


Jul 27, 2018
There is every reason to expect that growth in the second half of the year will still be in the 3% range, a very solid pace.


Jul 26, 2018
Firms may be spending most of their tax breaks on other things, but they are still putting a lot of money into capital equipment. With shipments surging, they are getting those goods delivered.


Jul 25, 2018
We need housing to be strong if growth above 3% is to be sustained. While a housing market slowdown should give the Fed some concern, the sector might have to tank before the members would seriously consider slowing the rate normalization process.

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