Joel Naroff

Mar 13, 2018
“Even with strong job gains and exuberant small business owners, inflation remains at reasonable levels.”

Mar 7, 2018
The strong payroll gains may be cutting into the backlog of open positions as the Conference Board’s Help Wanted OnLine measure was down sharply in February. Maybe. It is hardly clear why the number of want ads dropped, but they did, and the declines were widespread.

Feb 27, 2018
Growth this year should be strong, maybe even in the 3% range, but to get there, current business and consumer spending patterns have to change.

Feb 26, 2018
Right now, we have fifteen basis points to go to get there. If 2.85% is the new normal, it shows that an acceptable long-term rate is a moveable target. Don’t be surprised if 3% comes and goes in a similar manner. And we could get there fairly soon.

Feb 21, 2018
When you add rising mortgage rates to surging prices and a lack of inventory, it is hard to see that home sales will boom anytime soon.

Feb 16, 2018
The one-week retreat seems to have been shrugged off. But the inflation pressures are real and we haven’t seen any major economic acceleration from the tax cuts yet that could push up wage costs.

Feb 15, 2018
Business confidence may be sky-high, but it would be better if actual business activity was growing faster.

Feb 14, 2018
It is difficult to get strong overall economic growth without strong consumer spending. To maintain solid demand, households need the income to spend. They just don’t have it.

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