Tags: Hulbert | Halloween | stocks | October

Hulbert: Halloween Indicator Means Stocks Will Rise for Next 6 Months

By    |   Wednesday, 01 October 2014 01:38 PM

While the stock market has slid since the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average hit record highs Sept. 19, the outlook appears bright for the six months beginning Oct. 31, says Mark Hulbert, editor of Hulbert Financial Digest.

"Is the upcoming seasonally favorable period for stocks strong enough to overcome a possible bear market?" he writes on MarketWatch. The answer appears to be yes.

During the last 100 years almost all of the stock market's net returns have come during the period between Oct. 31 and May 1, Hulbert explains, noting that this phenomenon is known as the Halloween Indicator.
Even if we've entered a bear market, stocks may rise for the next six months, he writes. "Believe it or not, the last century's bear markets have inflicted the greatest damage during the summer [May through October]," Hulbert says.

"That suggests that, assuming the future is like the past, any imminent bear market will be relatively easy on us for the six months beginning at the end of this month."

As for stocks right now, "the headwinds have come to the forefront and investors are starting to recognize that," Randy Bateman, chief investment officer of Huntington Asset Advisors, told Bloomberg.

"You've got a whole bunch of geopolitical situations, and you have concerns about economic weakness. We've always relied on the Fed priming the pump. This is the month the pump dries up, so now people are focused on these other issues."

He was referring to the expectation that the Federal Reserve will announce an end to quantitative easing at its meeting Oct. 29.

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While the stock market has slid since the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average hit record highs Sept. 19, the outlook appears bright for the six months beginning Oct. 31, says Mark Hulbert, editor of Hulbert Financial Digest.
Hulbert, Halloween, stocks, October
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2014-38-01
Wednesday, 01 October 2014 01:38 PM
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