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Tags: united states | global | uncertainty | economy

Difficult and Dangerous Times Will Haunt US, Global Economies for Years

Difficult and Dangerous Times Will Haunt US, Global Economies for Years

By    |   Monday, 07 November 2016 07:19 AM EST

After FBI Director James Comey said on Sunday, “based on our review, we have not changed our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton,” we have seen a broad-based risk-on move in the markets that started early today in the Far East and that should continue in the West with stocks up, bonds down, gold down, dollar up, Swiss franc down, oil up, and so on…

In the meantime, Citi has lowered the probability of a Clinton win from 75 percent to 60 percent following tighter polls and seeing the risk of wild cards and Black Swan events.

Of course, and as Yogi Berra said: “It ain’t over till it's over.”

Anyway, if Citi is right and Clinton wins indeed the presidential elections, things shouldn’t change that much and we could see something similar to a continuation of the economics of the Obama era.

As things stand politically at present we could also see the gridlock situation to continue in Congress.

From a long-term investor’s standpoint that doesn’t look encouraging for taking long-term U.S. investment decisions now, which is of course not the same thing as short-term speculation or trading if you will.

As Trump doesn’t have a political record it’s impossible to configure a projection on the base of his political performance in the past.

Hilary on the contrary, will probably stay the course of President Obama’s economic policy by creating more jobs, but, and this is a very important point, less paid jobs, which means that disposable income will probably erode further during her Presidency.

As a long-term investor one should always try to be as realistic as possible and certainly try not getting emotional.

In this context, it is better not to overlook the fact that 52 percent of all Americans has nothing in the bank while they are deprived of their hopes.

This situation is actually so bad that if you move upside the major cities in the U.S., the average American thinks, for real, that the U.S. is in recession.

So, this very much about the inability of the political narrative to create a fundamental future for people.

This all confirms the social factor of the U.S. society has been changed and as the social fabric changes we very often move in life towards something we don’t want. So, take care.

We are at the end of a cycle of macro policy, but also in terms of the political establishment.

Where we go from here, whoever wins the elections wins, is extremely difficult to guess.

One thing is for sure. We are heading for difficult and dangerous times, economically and socially, and that not only in the United Sates but also globally.

Anyway, the U.S., but also the rest of the world will need a boatload of luck and good management for escaping a recession during the next 4 years.

As a long-term investor, I would construct my portfolio in function of that possibility and prefer to keep cash at hand for when markets get an uppercut.

Vice Fed Chair Stanley Fischer gave a prepared speech wherein he said: “… But the more interesting and important questions relate to the next few years rather than the next few months. They relate in large part to the secular stagnation arguments … in particular the behavior of the rate of productivity growth. The statement that the problem we face is largely one of demand--and we do face that problem--seems to imply either that productivity growth is called forth by aggregate demand … namely that productivity growth produces its own demand. That is not an issue that can be answered purely by theorizing. Rather, it will be answered by the behavior of output and inflation as we approach and perhaps to some extent exceed our employment and inflation targets.”

In simple words, uncertainty will continue to dominate over the next few years the U.S. economy, but also all economies of the world.

Germany’s Manufacturing orders for September saw an unexpected monthly drop of 0.6 percent while flat growth was expected and after a 0.9 percent rise in August. Yearly growth rose to 2.7 percent.

Retail sales in September for the Euro area was down 0.2 percent on a monthly basis and up 1.1 percent on a yearly basis


Etienne "Hans" Parisis is a bank economist who has advised global billionaires and governments on the financial markets and international investments.

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We are heading for difficult and dangerous times, economically and socially, and that not only in the United Sates but also globally.
united states, global, uncertainty, economy
Monday, 07 November 2016 07:19 AM
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