The Trump twitter feed was moderately active over the weekend, but the fact that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has rejected a public appeal to resign may now give investors some hopes of stability and responsible economic management.
The issues facing investors now are whether Congress can work through a range of problems including the debt ceiling, the cluster tightly together in the autumn months in the event that the U.S. executive branch fails to offer leadership.
Nevertheless, I think, for investors, this is all still more likely to be noise to financial markets than a substantial trend-setting issue.
Meanwhile, a more pressing concern for investors is this week’s annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Economic Policy Symposium for central bankers, policymakers, academics and economists from around the world that will take place August 24-26 with keynote remarks from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and the ECB President Mario Draghi on Friday.
This symposium is important because the audience is made of central bankers and economists and the comments that a central banker delivers for an audience of experts are likely to be different in both style and substance from the comments that a central banker delivers for a general audience.
In the case of Draghi, this time around it will probably not make much difference as the ECB President has indicated a disinclination to say anything of substance.
Anyway, Draghi, before traveling to Wyoming, will have spoken on Wednesday at the opening ceremony of 6th Lindau Meeting on Economic Sciences in Lindau, Germany, which will of course be on the watch list of monetary policy-watchers.
With what we know today, I still think Draghi’s speech will go more in the direction of the French proverb that says: Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose (“the more it changes, the more it remains the same thing”).
However, Yellen's speech has the potential to be far more interesting.
The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee of July 25-27 that were released last week on August 16, indicate that some members of the FOMC wished to move passive quantitative policy tightening as soon as July (relatively soon) and this makes a September announcement to seem much more likely.
In the minutes, we read: “Participants also discussed the appropriate time to implement the plan for reducing the Federal Reserve's securities holdings that was announced in June in the Committee's postmeeting statement and its Addendum to the Policy Normalization Principles and Plans. Participants generally agreed that, in light of their current assessment of economic conditions and the outlook, it was appropriate to signal that implementation of the program likely would begin relatively soon, absent significant adverse developments in the economy or in financial markets.
Of course, there are also technical issues, such as the ideal size of the Fed’s balance sheet in the long term to consider, both in dollar terms and relative to GDP.
There is also perhaps the less important issue of short term interest rates and there is the ongoing technical distortion to the consumer price inflation (CPI) data.
Yellen’s remarks are likely to loom large in the minds of investors all week.
It is just as well that we do have Yellen to look forward to as there is sadly far too little economics of note that are scheduled for today.
In Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has pledged to serve a full term as German Chancellor if elected in September.
This is actually not market-moving news, but there were some in the markets speculating on whether someone else may step up at some point.
Etienne "Hans" Parisis is a bank economist who has advised investors on financial markets and international investments.
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