Tags: investors | ecb | draghi | dollar

Global Conflicts, Terrorism and Political Risks Threaten Investors

Global Conflicts, Terrorism and Political Risks Threaten Investors

Friday, 04 December 2015 06:42 AM Current | Bio | Archive

Markets were clearly disappointed by the decision of the ECB Governing Council “only” to lower the already negative interest rate on the Central Bank’s deposit facility by 10 basis points to -0.30 percent and “only” to "extend" its asset purchase program (APP) of its monthly purchases of 60 billion euros until the end of March 2017.

This represents nevertheless an intended extension of an extra 360 billion euros of sovereign bonds,  which could be extended if necessary and at least until inflation reaches its “mandated” objective of an inflation rate of below — but close to — 2 percent.

I don’t think economists were disappointed as the ECB’s announced measures still represent a substantial expansion of its overall QE program.

Anyway, at least for now, investors could do well by staying on the sidelines until the “Draghi-caused storm” has blown over.

As the old saying goes, "One day doesn't make a trend."

It was also interesting to see, because of the huge disappointment in the markets, how the euro experiencing its third biggest intra-day trading range ever, by percentage points, against the dollar.

Equity markets’ volatile behavior simply confirmed their dangerous/risky “addiction” to ever getting more and more cheap money for nothing.

It was amazing hearing Mario Draghi say at his press conference when answering a question about QE and its impact on creating inflation in the eurozone, “… overall, the conclusion about our policies was that they've been effective … So let me say this very clearly: we are doing more (QE) because it works, not because it fails.”

We could say that was a rather strange answer of the ECB President when the just released “Eurosystem Macroeconomic projections for the Euro area” informed HICP inflation expectations were revised (slightly) lower to average 0.1 percent in 2015, 1.0 percent in 2016 and 1.6 percent in 2017.

Those same “Eurosystem Macroeconomic projections” gave us also their view on World real GDP they now expect to grow in 2015 by 3.1 percent, in 2016 by 3.6 percent and in 2017 by 3.9 percent, while Global trade is expected to grow by only 0.5 percent in 2015, 2.9 percent in 2016 and 3.8 percent in 2017. It’s important to take notice that the overall numbers were all-but-one revised down rather substantially since the latest update in September.

All this underlines the fact that global growth remains extremely vulnerable in case we’d have to face a global shock (let’s hope not!) over the coming years.

During the Q&A session at the ECB press conference, Mr. Draghi was asked about the possible effects of the recent terrorist attacks on the economy and if these effects were already included in the macroeconomic projections, he answered: “My frank answer to this is, ‘We don't know.’ We certainly have in mind that the situation ahead is full of geopolitical risks, and that's why we have to be alert … well aware that the surrounding conditions may actually get worse because of these geopolitical risks. So I should say, in these present measures, the measures we've decided today, there is confidence but there is no complacency.”

Maybe long-term investors could do well also remaining on alert and certainly not being/remaining complacent about the risks that are out there simply because from a “macro” standpoint we must admit Conflict(s), Terrorism and Political Risks are all on the rise.

If something should go wrong or not evolve as expected, impacts on the broad markets probably should be substantial and if that should occur, but again let’s hope not, complacent investors will have to pay the piper …

Yes, “the Goldilocks" era for investors, all over the world, is coming, step-by-step, to its end.” Let’s hope it won’t be an abrupt end.

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“The Goldilocks era for investors, all over the world, is coming, step-by-step, to its end.” Let’s hope it won’t be an abrupt end.
investors, ecb, draghi, dollar
Friday, 04 December 2015 06:42 AM
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