The most significant new policy information should come from the monetary policy meeting at the ECB this week on March 10 coupled with the press conference of ECB President Mario Draghi.

Every outcome scenario will remain hypothetical until we know the ECB’s decision. Draghi has made it crystal clear the ECB will do all it can to obtain, within its mandate, to achieve its objective of inflation rates below, but close to 2% over the medium term. The big question remains “How?”

Maybe it could be somewhat interesting taking notice Euro Finance Ministers are meeting in Brussels, but any hope for constructive action from their part should better be limited given their history.

The unfortunate basic deal in the Euro area these days still remains that the European Finance Ministers talk about reform, Draghi continues to pursue ever more radical policies justifying the more questionable economics and the European Finance Ministers then sit back and adhere more-or-less to the mistaken belief that their Central Bank can substitute for structural reform.

For long-term investors who have an eye on the Euro area it could be good to keep in mind “this” is why the Euro area can readily achieve a cyclical recovery, but untill now has made little to no progress in engineering a structural recovery.

Unless the ECB starts to put in place a policy based on economic reality and notwithstanding we’ve seen some growing interests for reform on part of the Finance Ministers this unfortunate game seems set to continue to play out , which is, and until that changes not a sound basis for justifying overall longer-term investments in the zone.

Of course, there are always “exceptions” that confirm the rule.

Meanwhile, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned on the consequences of negative interest rates suggesting that they are at least unpredictable and potentially damaging to the longer and the more negative that they go.

On the subject, the Financial Times warned: “If negative policy rates do not feed into lending rates for households and firms, they largely lose their rationale. On the other hand, if negative policy rates are transmitted to lending rates for firms and households, then there will be knock-on effects on bank profitability unless negative rates are also imposed on deposits, raising questions as to the stability of the retail deposit base.”

Maybe it could be helpful to remember how the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney's criticized recently in a prepared speech, countries that had adopted negative rates: “… when negative rates are implemented in ways that insulate retail customers, shutting off the  cash flow and other channels that mainly affect domestic demand, while allowing wholesale rates to adjust,  their main effect is through the exchange rate channel … From an individual country’s perspective this might be an attractive route to boost activity. But for the world as a whole, this export of excess saving and transfer of demand weakness elsewhere is ultimately a zero sum game.  Moreover, to the extent, it pushes greater savings onto the global markets, global short-term equilibrium rates would fall further, pulling the global economy closer to a liquidity trap. At the global zero bound, there is no free lunch.”

In simple words, Carney meant the use of negative deposit rates in the fashion it is done these days bordered on currency manipulation.

This week we’ll see what the ECB will do and say.

Maybe and at least for the time being, as a long-term investor it could be better remaining cautious and patient while hoping we don’t come closer to an “open” currency war. Of course, the overall “mediocre” global growth situation won’t help either.

The only thing that is certain today is “uncertainty,” and that is nobody’s friend for long-term investing.

Etienne "Hans" Parisis is a bank economist who has advised global billionaires and governments on the financial markets and international investments. To read more of his articles, GO HERE NOW.