Tags: investing | market | stocks | volatility

Investors Need to Be Prepared for Volatility to Avoid Losses

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Friday, 28 August 2015 12:01 PM Current | Bio | Archive

It’s really interesting to see how spiking volatility has caused all these jitters in equity, commodity, currency markets all over the globe.

Looking at this situation from a technical standpoint it all looks more like a “bull trap” so far. We’ll have first to retest the recent lows and once we are there we’ll have to see if these levels can hold, keeping in mind there is a good probability prices could plunge through these levels.

Of course, this is not written in stone and we’ll have to wait and see what comes out. Nevertheless, it’s advised to keep a close eye on it if you don’t want to get burned.

We should better not expect a quiet environment on the way up to mid-September, with the Fed funds rate decision on September 17th and when Fed Chair Janet Yellen will also give her 3-monthly FOMC press conference, and then further out into October, which is, together with September, historically known as not market friendly months.

As the FOMC has stated repeatedly their final decision for starting their way to “normalization” will be data dependent and as the Fed itself also states: “Through ‘forward guidance,’ the Federal Open Market Committee provides an indication to households, businesses, and investors about the stance of monetary policy expected to prevail in the future,” it could become interesting to see if Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will be willing/allowed to give us, or not, some indications of “forward guidance” when on Saturday, at the annual Kansas City Fed gathering in Jacksonville, Wyo., he will be part of a discussion panel about “Global Inflation Dynamics” together with ECB Vice-President Victor Constancio, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and Bank of India Governor RaghuramRajan.

In case Fisher gives “dovish” comments, which remains to be seen, the chances of a Fed rate hike in September would be lowered considerably.

In the meantime, the just released second revision of U.S. GDP growth in Q2 rose 3.7 percent during the quarter on a yearly basis, up from 2.3 percent in the BEA 1st estimate, and up from 0.6 percent in Q1.

For long-term investors it’s important to take notice real GDP now has risen by 2.7 percent over the last 4 quarters while real Gross Domestic Output (GDO), which is the average of GDP and Gross Domestic Income (GDI), has risen by 2.5 percent over the same period.

The second revision of the real Private Domestic Final Purchases (PDFP) growth numbers have also been revised up to 3.3 percent year-over-year in Q2 and is now growing at a faster year-over-year basis than the overall GDP itself that came in at 2.7 percent on a yearly basis. Please keep in mind the PDFP is considered as a relatively good indicator of what to expect of the next-quarter GDP, which for that reason should be good.

These are without any doubt good GDP numbers, especially when we look at them in a global context.

The big question becomes will the Fed keep its Fed fund rates at 0-0.25 percent for "economic" or for "market" reasons.

In this context, I always have to think back what happened in Japan on February 12th at the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy when the Bank of Japan Governor Mr. Haruhiko Kuroda stated Japanese interest rates could soar in the future if the fiscal credibility of the government should be called into doubt, and what could happen if the Fed should keep its interest rates at too low levels for no obvious reason for too long.

Finally, Moody's Investors Service revised down its forecast for GDP growth in the G20 economies to 2.8 percent from 3.1 percent earlier in 2016.

It says that the revision mainly reflects the impact of a more marked slowdown in China it now expects to grow by 6.3 percent in 2016, down from 6.5 percent previously, and more prolonged negative effects of low commodity prices on G20 producers than earlier expected.

Marie Diron, a senior vice president at Moody's said when the the report “Downward Revisions to 2016 Global Economic Outlook” was presented: “Slower growth in China makes a significant rebound in commodity prices in the near term unlikely. A more prolonged period of low commodity prices will lead to muted export revenues and investment for commodity-exporting G20 economies.”

Moody’s also lowered its growth forecast in 2016 for the U.S. to 2.6 percent from 2.8 percent previously, which puts close to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recent forecasts.

Over the next few weeks, volatility will be the name of the game in town. Watch out you don’t get burned.

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HansParisis
It's really interesting to see how spiking volatility has caused all these jitters in equity, commodity, currency markets all over the globe.
investing, market, stocks, volatility
769
2015-01-28
Friday, 28 August 2015 12:01 PM
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