Today, we’ll get the U.S. third quarter GDP numbers, although there is not much change anticipated from the preliminary numbers that came in at 2.9 percent.
Now, given the rather seismic upheavals of the political landscape and subsequent policy uncertainty, investors could do well keeping in mind that this sort of data is increasingly unhelpful for financial markets.
U.S. policy continuous along conventional paths and the idea of momentum going into the new year, with potential disruption to trade, healthcare and infrastructure policy, to say nothing of taxes and other issues, extrapolating from this data is not, maybe, that useful.
It might also be worth looking at the details of the price deflator as the expectation is that the paths of the muted stimulus will do more for inflation than for real economic activity, and the foundation of price pressures is therefore a relevant focus.
Over in the Euro area, we get today the opportunity to look at the contrasts of the Euro area economies with the release of consumer price inflation preliminary estimates of November.
Germany is expected to continue close to 1 percent on the year inflation. German inflation has picked up from a low of -0.3 percent reached early in 2015 and is currently running at 0.83 percent year-over-year.
This is due to base effects from oil. Excluding energy, the inflation rate has barely moved and hovers around 1.1 percent over the same period.
Nonetheless, the European Central Bank (ECB) has always claimed most vehemently that it is the headline inflation rate that matters. If headline inflation mattered on the way down, then headline inflation should matter on the way up, even if we are just seeing the base effects coming through.
However, in Spain the inflation rate that runs at 0.68 percent is expected to continue to run below German inflation because Spain does not have the same domestic cost pressures as the Germans to support its inflation story.
For example, unemployment in Spain stands at 19.3 percent while German unemployment stands at 4.1 percent while, last but not least, youth unemployment in Spain stands at 42.6 percent and in Germany at 6.8 percent.
Inflation may also continue to be a challenge for the Japanese consumer as, once again, Japanese consumer spending data has come in negative.
The unemployment rate remains low, but so do wages. Japanese workers are either unable or unwilling to negotiate better pay-deals. The result is a deflation expectation when it comes to wage growth, but an inflation expectation when it comes to prices. Indeed, Japan faces a very strong inflation expectation when it comes to prices. A combination is unlikely to support Japanese consumer spending enthusiastically.
The Bank of England just provided us with the latest consumer credit data that came in better than expected and showed an annual growth rate of 10.5 percent, which is the fastest growth rate since October 2005 while Mortgage approvals for house purchases also increased to 67,518 in October from 63,594 in September. Yes, so far, so good.
The UK housing market has been a concern for a number of investors in the wake of the UK referendum result, although houses bought by the local population rarely equates to the sort of properties that are purchased by the international investors.
Credit growth generally gives some indication of robustness of domestic demand amidst the uncertainty of the UK’s exit from the EU news, on which is now reduced to photographs taken with a telephoto lens of scrolled memos which, by the way, were carried by an aide to a Conservative party vice-chairman after a meeting in No 10, saying it is “unlikely” that Britain will be given the chance to remain in the Single Market after it leaves the EU.
If markets are going to be informed by these kind of information sources rather than clear statements of intent, this promises to be a long, long process.
All that said, one thing remains for sure, long-term investing will become more difficult by the day.
Etienne "Hans" Parisis is a bank economist who has advised global billionaires and governments on the financial markets and international investments.
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