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Investors Must Remember: There Has Never Been a Boom Without a Bust

Investors Must Remember: There Has Never Been a Boom Without a Bust

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Monday, 13 June 2016 10:48 AM Current | Bio | Archive


This weekend’s horrific shooting tragedy in the United States is likely to dominate the news cycle while the politicization of the event is already a fact.

On Wednesday, we’ll get the FOMC policy decision as well as Fed Chairman Janet Yellen's press conference.

Despite limited expectations on the policy front, the Fed’s economic outlook for the rest of the year and as reflected in its expected path of the funds rate that will be illustrated in the updated “dots” plot could, which doesn’t mean it will, be useful for investors as well as for traders going into the summer.

Last week’s remarks of Yellen were really noteworthy when she said: “The recovery has not always been smooth, but overall, the gains have been impressive. In particular, the job market has strengthened substantially, and I believe we are now close to eliminating the slack that has weighed on the labor market since the recession … The current actual value of the federal funds rate, also measured in real terms, is even lower, somewhere around minus 1 percent … I continue to believe that it will be appropriate to gradually reduce the degree of monetary policy accommodation.”

Of course, raising the fed-funds rate this week would be a huge surprise, but July and September remain logic dates for a rate hike, especially September when we’ll have got 3 more labor reports in the meantime.

Investors should not forget that Yellen said in December 2015 before the Congress' Joint Economic Committee: “To simply provide jobs for those who are newly entering the labor force probably requires under 100,000 jobs per month, with anything above that helping absorb those who are unemployed, discouraged or had dropped out of the labor market.”

The latest disappointing non-farm payrolls data for the month of May still shows an annual growth rate of close to 140,000.

Besides all that, for all investors in the world, the U.K.’s EU referendum on June 23 continuous to make them extremely nervous.

For Monday, it’s risk-off in equity markets everywhere and red is the color of the day.

Weekend opinion polls basically show a too-close-to-call situation, which translates into uncertainty. There is a telephone opinion poll due this week and telephone opinion polls have traditionally indicated a stronger lead for remain. The Prime Minister Cameron is also due to appear on television again, but political intervention has so far done little to change public opinion.

British pound volatility will remain in place until the referendum is over. It has now reached the high levels we have not seen since the great financial crisis of 2008. The British pound continues its slide while hedge funds are at present net short British pound by the most in nearly 3 years.

From China, we got a quick rush of data, though none of these were especially controversial. Retail sales and industrial production are both in line with consensus expectations.

Retail sales continue to grow faster than nominal GDP growth giving support to the story of a rising share of the economy going to the consumer and by implication an erosion of the savings rate.
  • As the consumer spends more on goods, and that will have a spillover effect outside of China.
  • If the consumer spends more on services then the consequences are largely a local affair.
More important for investors who have investing interests in China are the remarks of the IMF's first deputy managing director David Lipton, who stated at a conference in China that: “Mounting corporate debt is a key fault line in the Chinese economy ... Corporate debt remains a serious-and growing-problem that must be addressed immediately and with a commitment to serious reforms.”

Lipton added: “The past year's credit boom is just extending the problem ... Already many SOEs (State Owned Enterprises) are essentially on life support.” 

I’d like to add there has never been a boom without a bust, and China will not be an exception. It's not a question of if, but a question of when.

Etienne "Hans" Parisis is a bank economist who has advised global billionaires and governments on the financial markets and international investments. To read more of his articles, GO HERE NOW.

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HansParisis
I’d like to add there has never been a boom without a bust, and China will not be an exception. It's not a question of if, but a question of when.
fed, janet yellen, brexit, rates
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2016-48-13
Monday, 13 June 2016 10:48 AM
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