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Tags: dollar | fed | commodities | investors

Dollar Will Continue to Climb But Won't Boost Other Investments

Dollar Will Continue to Climb But Won't Boost Other Investments

By    |   Wednesday, 27 July 2016 08:41 AM EDT

The Fed would surprise nobody if it remained too cautious for the very simple reason that as the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Martin Weale just said: “If you spend all the time waiting for a clear signal, it never comes,”

There will always be something to worry about. No one should be surprised if the FOMC statement would show the rebirth of a something more hawkish biased tone, for which there is plenty of reason.

Remember, on June 15, Fed Chair Janet Yellen explicitly said in her press conference: “Brexit, the upcoming U.K. decision on whether or not to leave the European Union, is something we discussed, and I think it’s fair to say that it was one of the factors that factored into today’s decisions … It is a decision that could have consequences for economic and financial conditions in global financial markets. If it does so, it could have consequences in turn for the U.S. economic outlook that would be a factor in deciding on the appropriate path of policy.”

It’s still way too early to get a serious idea of what Brexit could mean in the coming years for the U.K., the EU, the world, which includes of course the U.S., overall markets, with exception that the British pound that is about 10 percent lower than where it was before the Brexit vote. Also, the VIX is currently trading close to its lowest levels in 12 months.

That said, it might be good for investors to recall that the United States is also the country of which its global trade represents only about 20 percent of its GDP, which is the lowest trade percentage to GDP off all OECD countries.

By the way, the Euro area stands slightly above 40 percent, the UK at slightly above 30 percent and all OECD countries together stand around 30 percent.

Although a negative impact from a country like the UK, which is the fifth most important economy in the world, will have a negative effect  on everybody, but due to the fact that U.S. global trade represents only about 20 percent of its GDP, any negative impact from the UK over the coming years should rather be rather limited, which cannot be said for the Euro area for example.

It is also a fact that it is now expected that the process of the UK leaving the EU will take much more time than many, including the majority of European politicians, have thought as probably the whole process won’t be completed before the next European elections in 2019 take place.

Looking for a moment at the Chinese currency, which has been another source of worry for the Fed and the U.S. Treasury, it is interesting to see how in sharp contrast to the period between late 2014 and the start of this year, there has been no sign of further significant outflows from China's forex reserves since February and even have edged up in June.

That said, it will be the wording of today’s FOMC statement that will, or will not, send an appropriately hawkish message without disturbing international markets too much, while it may well be the Fed would still prefer to avoid too much fresh dollar strength from here on.

No doubt, the Fed is going to face in the near future a particularly tough balance to achieve given the likelihood that other major central banks like the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Bank of England (BoE) are bound easing policy in the weeks ahead, precisely at a time, and that’s a problem, when currency policies of other nations are becoming a political issue within the United States.

Adding to that it must also be said that the U.S. Treasury continues warning other nations to avoid competitive currency devaluations.

The question is if this will be of any help at the end of the day.

In my opinion, the only direction for the dollar over the short to median term is to head higher, albeit not dramatically. This steady rise won't be supportive for commodities.

Etienne "Hans" Parisis is a bank economist who has advised global billionaires and governments on the financial markets and international investments. To read more of his articles, GO HERE NOW.

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In my opinion, the only way for the dollar over the short to median term is up, albeit not dramatically, and which shouldn't be supportive for commodities.
dollar, fed, commodities, investors
Wednesday, 27 July 2016 08:41 AM
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