Tags: Goldman | oil | commodity | price

Goldman Sachs: Oil Might Drop Further Next Year

By    |   Thursday, 20 November 2014 12:01 PM

U.S. oil prices have plunged 30 percent since June 20, and they might have further to go next year amid low development costs and bulging supply, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.

Already U.S. oil output has soared to its highest level in at least 31 years.

West Texas Intermediate January crude futures traded at $75 a barrel Thursday morning and fell to a four-year low of $73.25 Nov. 14

A "new oil order," is upon us, Goldman analysts write in an outlook for 2015 obtained by CNBC.

"While it would be natural to see a period of consolidation [for oil prices] after such sharp moves (and our forecasts show limited further downside from here), it is important to note that the scope for downside surprises is not finished," the analysts say.

"A material expansion in oil service capacity in recent years is likely to lead to 5 to 15 percent cost deflation across oil developments, and positive production surprises from Libya, Iraq and Iran could further reinforce an oversupplied market in the coming year."

Lower oil prices might also put pressure on other commodity prices, they note.

Meanwhile, if crude prices average $75 a barrel in the first quarter next year, as Goldman predicts, 19 U.S. shale regions will no longer be profitable, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

"Everybody is trying to put a very happy spin on their ability to weather $80 oil, but a lot of that is just smoke," Daniel Dicker, president of MercBloc Wealth Management Solutions, tells Bloomberg. "The shale revolution doesn't work at $80, period."

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U.S. oil prices have plunged 30 percent since June 20, and they might have further to go next year amid low development costs and bulging supply, according to Goldman Sachs analysts.
Goldman, oil, commodity, price
263
2014-01-20
Thursday, 20 November 2014 12:01 PM
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