As the 2024 presidential election looms, there’s a palpable sense of frustration among many Americans. Rising costs, stagnant wages, and deepening inequality have turned many of the nation’s economic challenges into political rallying cries.
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At this time, everyone sees the obvious suffering of the middle class and the catastrophic effects of weak economic policy and poor diplomacy. Could this tremendous anger at Harris and Biden be the fuel that drives Donald Trump to another victory?
The past three years, from 2021 to 2024, have seen worsening conditions across multiple kitchen table issues that directly affect voters’ lives—conditions that may set the stage for a Trump resurgence or even a popular vote victory and electoral college landslide. [i]
Inflation and the Rising Cost of Living
Since 2021, inflation has surged to levels not seen in decades. Prices for everyday essentials like food, housing, and utilities have steadily climbed, putting immense pressure on household budgets. Families are finding it increasingly difficult to make ends meet, with many resorting to savings or taking on debt to cover basic expenses.
The rising cost of living has become a critical issue for millions of Americans, and anger with the current administration’s handling of inflation could push millions of voters to Trump, who promises to tackle these economic issues head-on. [ii]
Job Creation and Unemployment
While the job market saw a brief resurgence post-pandemic, many workers are now facing uncertainties. Layoffs in tech, retail, and other sectors, combined with an increase in part-time or gig work, have led to an unstable labor environment. Job creation has not kept pace with population growth, and in many sectors, workers are forced to accept jobs that pay less or offer fewer benefits.
This reality is a far cry from the job security many expected, and as voters struggle with employment instability, Trump’s pro-business, pro-growth rhetoric could strike a chord. [iii]
Wages and Income Disparity
Despite the rising cost of living, wages for many workers have stagnated. Bad inflation policy has killed the wages of most Americans. Minimum wage hikes have been ruined by inflation, leaving workers with zero improvement in their actual purchasing power with many worse off than 4 years ago.
Trump’s campaign may find fertile ground here, as he can easily argue that income inequality has worsened under the current administration and that his policies would restore wage growth and economic opportunity particularly with his Platinum Plan for minorities. [iv]
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Healthcare Costs
Healthcare remains a top concern for many voters. While the Obamacare Affordable Care Act brought initial changes to access, the ACA has become unaffordable and does not cover all needs. The price of prescription drugs, insurance premiums, and medical services has become an overwhelming burden for many families.
The current administration’s efforts to address these issues have met with mixed results, leaving many voters feeling that healthcare remains unaffordable. Trump’s promise to overhaul the healthcare system and reduce costs could resonate with voters looking for real solutions. [v]
Housing Affordability
Rising rents and home prices have reached crisis levels in many cities, making it increasingly difficult for families to find affordable housing. Homeownership, once considered a cornerstone of the American dream, is now out of reach for many. In particular, young adults and middle-class families are feeling the squeeze, with rents taking up larger portions of their income. [vi]
Tax Policy
Tax policy remains an important issue for all workers, with middle- and lower-income families feeling the brunt of rising taxes and reduced deductions. While the wealthiest Americans are paying more taxes, the average voter has seen little relief as the inflation has been so horrific evaporating wages and pension buying power.
Trump’s tax-reform agenda from his previous term may resonate with those who feel they’ve been left behind in the current economic climate. His promise of broader tax reform may appeal to voters seeking more control over their financial future, and Trump has promise to eliminate taxes on the tips of the hardest working Americans.
Social Security and Retirement Security
As the American population ages, concerns about the sustainability of Social Security and pension systems have come to the forefront. Many voters, particularly seniors, are worried that their retirement savings will not be enough to support them through their later years. The last few years have seen growing fears about the solvency of Social Security, with no clear plan from the current administration to address these issues.
Trump’s focus on ensuring retirement security may draw support from older voters seeking stability. Trump has already been the leader in this area and promised to eliminate or lower taxes on Social Security retirees. [vii]
Childcare and Education Costs
The cost of childcare and education have gone through the roof, leaving many families struggling to afford any quality care for their children. Student loan debt burdens are up 300% and remain a significant issue for young adults, with little relief in sight.
The burden of these costs has left a majority feeling that the American dream has already slipped away for the this and the next generation. Trump’s push for lower education costs, family deductions, child tax credits and expanded school choice may attract voters eager for reform in these areas. [viii] [ix]
Energy Prices
There has been an extreme rise in gasoline prices and energy bills over the past few years due to poor energy policy and unresolved global conflicts/wars, with almost all voters feeling the impact on their wallets.
While the shift toward renewable energy has been a priority for the current administration, the hasty and unorganized transition has come with higher costs in most all cases. Rising energy prices are a daily reminder of economic instability, and voters are hereby drawn to Trump’s common sense promises of energy independence and lower costs at the pump. [x]
Food Security and Grocery Prices
Perhaps the most tangible sign of economic hardship for many families is the rising cost of groceries. Food prices have increased significantly since 2021, making it harder for families to put food on the table while children go hungry. Supply chain disruptions, inflation, and other factors have contributed to this increase, and many voters feel the pinch every time they visit the grocery store.
Trump’s focus on reducing these prices through economic reform and lowering the cost of diesel for farmers appeals to almost everyone who is struggling with food insecurity. [xi]
The Anger Frustration and Dispair Factors
The common thread across all these issues is dissatisfaction. Many Americans feel that their lives have become harder, not easier, over the past three years. The promise of a return to normalcy after the pandemic has not materialized for many, and economic pressures have only intensified.
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This anger may well be the driving force behind a Trump resurgence, as voters look for a candidate who can offer stability and solutions to their everyday struggles.
Voters are increasingly upset about the endless wars, the outrageous inflation on food and rents, and the insane costs of utilities and gasoline. Further, the crime rates are the worst in 50 years where crime causes inflation in the areas of auto insurance, home insurance, and even life insurance.
While Trump is remembered as a bold, innovative, and unrelenting president, his ability to tap into voter frustration, particularly around economic issues, could pave the way for his reelection in 2024. The kitchen table concerns of inflation, job security, healthcare, housing, and more are likely to dominate the conversation, and if Trump can effectively address these issues, he may well ride a wave of voter frustration and anger back into the White House.
As a few yard signs have said, “No More Wars,” “Energy Independence Again,” “Bring the Jobs Back,” and “Peace and Prosperity”. People are fed up, angry and hungry for unabashed leadership again. [xii]
As of today, the anger and despair is finally showing in the polls. Based on Gallup Data, Trump is projected to do 7% better in terms of the popular vote margin and is in a stronger position to flip key battleground states, making him significantly more competitive in 2024 compared to where he stood in 2020 at this same point in time. [xiii] [xiv]
If the election were held today, Trump would become president again by winning over 32 states or more and over 300 electoral college votes, and some are speculating that he could win the national popular vote which would be a historic feat that would give the incumbent President Trump a clear mandate.
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Commissioner George Mentz JD MBA CILS CWM® is the first in the USA to rank as a Top 50 Influencer & Thought Leader in: Management, PM, HR, FinTech, Wealth Management, and B2B according to Onalytica.com and Thinkers360.com. George Mentz JD MBA CILS is a CWM Chartered Wealth Manager ®, global speaker - educator, tax-economist, international lawyer and CEO of the GAFM Global Academy of Finance & Management ®. The GAFM is a EU accredited graduate body that trains and certifies professionals in 150+ nations under standards of the: US Dept of Education, ACBSP, ISO 21001, ISO 991, ISO 29993, QAHE, ECLBS, and ISO 29990 standards. Mentz is also an award winning author and award winning graduate law professor of wealth management of one of the top 30 ranked law schools in the USA.
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