I was reviewing some stock charts on top-performing businesses that were publicly traded during the last recession (2009-12) and up until today.
I was delightfully surprised to see many of my neighborhood companies which I regularly patronize on the leading-stocks lists. The question that this exercise forces an investor to examine is this: Where have you been spending your dollars lately?
If you have been to the typical strip-mall, use your favorite technology, need transportation, or paid for health care, there are generally businesses earning massive revenues from millions of Americans’ monthly home-budget or generalized business spending.
As Charles Schwab once implied, it is not difficult to sell a prudent investor a utilities mutual fund because the investor inherently knows that their energy bill hasn’t gone down. What this means is investors should “follow their money” and analyze their budgets before investing in the stock markets.
Sometimes, the fundamental investor analysis is for the individual to determine if a stock represents products and services that they already know and believe in.
Some of the stocks that I have noticed are resilient and almost defensive in a global downturn:
- Discount Supplies: Dollar General (DG) - Quick and easy purchases of supplies and food for home, hygiene, kitchen and more. Both businesses and home budgets spend money here.
- Beverages: Monster Beverage (MNST) - The Big Energy Business - Between Red Bull and the rest, the non-alcoholic drinks that are enhanced with: Amino Acids, Proteins, B- vitamins, and more are hot stocks where big companies might want to buy them out.
- Visa or Amex: The credit card and merchant companies are making more and more money charging fees, interest and more while reaping revenues from both buyers and sellers. Loyalty rewards and points continue to be drivers of the use of cards. The Fed raised rates 9 times from 2015-2019 which benefits banking and lenders.
- Travel: Booking Holdings (BKNG) and other travel related companies such as CTRIP in China keep on growing
- Drugs: Various Pharma or Health-Care Stocks: Some companies are well positioned to benefit from revolutionary patents and cures and many have dividends.
- Mall and Restaurant Stocks: Local restaurants with mall locations to eat in or drive through where many locations are next to or convenient to other business or shopping areas.
- Phone: Apple (AAPL) - If you have one, then you know.
- Data: Verizon ( VZ) - One of the many service providers. If you have a phone, you will need wireless service for phone, data and more.
- Clothes, Food, Pharmacy, etc.: WalMart (WMT) - With the discount super-locations, you can fill your basket with food, supplies, clothes and more at low prices.
The other areas where we all spend money which may be very emblematic such as: auto, fuel, insurance, health care, medicine, security, internet services and more. If you are having trouble remembering where all of your money goes, take a look at your checkbook statements or your credit card statements.
I would not encourage people to buy any stock that is overpriced or that has too much downside. However, the data suggest that many of these companies have done well in the worst economy in 80 years during the Obama administration and afterward during the Trump boom.
What is also amazing about many of these stocks is that they are companies that represent brick and mortar, they have physical locations in both urban and smaller cities along with some online business too.
George Mentz JD MBA CWM Chartered Wealth Manager ® is a licensed attorney and CEO of GAFM ® global education, which is an ISO 29990 Certified professional development company operating in over 50 nations. Mentz is an award winning author and advisory board member to several companies around the world in education, charities, and crypto currency.
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