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Economics of the Presidential Election

Economics of the Presidential Election
(Evan Vucci/AP)

George Mentz By Thursday, 12 September 2019 12:39 PM EDT Current | Bio | Archive

Trump 2020 and the Electoral College Prediction

In 2015, I predicted Donald Trump would win the election by sweeping FLOHCOPAIA, which is Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Iowa. I was only wrong about one thing, my home state of Colorado.

However, Trump may be poised to even win Colorado and Minnesota because people are happy with the present trajectory of the economy and progress of the U.S. for working families.

Nobody could have predicted that Trump would win 30 states in a veritable landslide against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump's win of Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016 was the biggest kick in the gut to the Democratic Party in 50 years, but can it happen again?

Everyone knows that if you win California, New York and Florida, that you will probably take the Electoral College. The brutal truth is that while many progressives hate the Electoral College, you only need 11 states to win the presidency. I will leave it to you to figure out which ones those are.

The analysts are predicting a Trump win in 2020 by 60% to 70%. Here are a few reasons why Trump can win the same states as he did in 2016 and potentially add Minnesota and Colorado.

  1. Ohio and Florida: In 2018, Republicans won the governorships of Ohio and Florida. This is important as turnout was down in 2018. However, in 2020, the suburban vote will turn out in full again to support mainstream-worker candidates such as Trump. If Democrats can present a better case for working families, they may gain support, but only time will tell.
  2. Employment Records: Job gains for all minorities and women are at historic highs.
  3. Interest Rates: While Trump has had great results with jobs and the stock market, the Federal Reserve raised rates 9 times since 2015, which means that 50% of our annual deficit is paying the interest on President Barack Obama’s $10 trillion in debt.
  4. The Deep Bench: The top candidates running against Trump may not have the energy, team, message, or bullhorn to compete with the president.
  5. Trump’s Peace and Prosperity: After many years of war and waste of spending offshore, working folks want Trump to continue to invest money in the health system, education, and infrastructure.
  6. Criminal Investigations of Obama administration: Various people in the Obama administration may soon be criminally investigated where indictments could come out in the coming weeks and months. If a few indictments are made, then the American public will know that the prior leadership was using dirty tactics and the intelligence community to derail Trump.
  7. Promises Kept: The president has followed through with his promises and has 90% support in his party.
  8. Diverse Support at a High: Trump's support among workers and minorities including Hispanic and others has dramatically surpassed beyond Bush, Romney and others. If Trump's minority support holds up next year, they will render Trump unbeatable in November of 2020.

When Trump started his run for president, he was priced at 500/1, or +50000 on betting sites. Thus, odds gave Trump a 0.2% chance of winning the presidency and a $100 bet would return $50,000 profit. Today, Trump’s odds have become better over the last few weeks to -120. This means you would need to wager $120 to win $100.

As for the economy, the Federal Reserve, Treasury and the president already have contingency plans in place to boost the economy and jobs by: reducing interest rates, taxes, and the cost of doing business.

With regard to the trade negotiations with China? This issue can be settled at any time before the election making the president look like a hero to working folks in the U.S. Since workers were disenfranchised by Nafta and other burdensome regulations which made business too costly in the U.S., working Democrats support the president in finding a better trade deal with China.

As of today, based on the existing economic and global variables, I predict that Trump wins 32 states or more to win the presidency again in 2020. That would be the 306 electoral votes Trump won in 2016, plus 9 from Colorado, and 10 from Minnesota. Thus, a predicted win by Trump by 325 electoral votes for Trump to his opponent’s 213 electoral votes.

George Mentz JD MBA CWM Chartered Wealth Manager ® is a licensed attorney and CEO of GAFM ® global education, which is an ISO 29990 Certified professional development company operating in over 50 nations. Mentz is an award winning author and advisory board member to several companies around the world in education, charities, and crypto currency.

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Nobody could have predicted that Donald Trump would win 30 states in a veritable landslide against Hillary Clinton in 2016.
economic, trump, presidential, election
Thursday, 12 September 2019 12:39 PM
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