Tags: UBS | Global | Market | Risk

UBS: Global Market Risk Approaching Extreme Level

Tuesday, 20 Apr 2010 09:21 AM

A new report from UBS says that global equity market risk is approaching an extreme level, as the bank’s Global Equity Risk Appetite Indicator continues to rise.

“After briefly dipping into negative territory in early February, the indicator has risen five out of the last six weeks (with one week unchanged) and is nearing the plus 1.30 level, which we define as extreme risk seeking territory,” the bank reports.

The report notes that when the index is greater than plus 1.3 standard deviations from its mean, investors are very willing to take risk, which is when historically the index has given its best ‘sell signal.’

“Equity returns 12 months on from such high risk appetite are typically very poor, just 1 percent on average,” the report says.

Polls from both the American Association of Individual Investors and Investor Intelligence show that bullish sentiment continues to rise, the Pragmatic Capitalist reports.

The AAII is reporting a 1.6 percent increase, boosting the bullish index to 42.9 percent and surpassing the 39 percent historical bullish sentiment indicator.

Bearish sentiment, on the other hand, has fallen to 30 percent, indicating that investors are experiencing greatly increased risk appetite.

The Investors Intelligence survey of financial advisers showed a similar trend in rising bullish sentiment.

According to its survey, the number of bullish advisers jumped from 48.3 to 48.9 percent and bearish sentiment fell to 18.9 percent.

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A new report from UBS says that global equity market risk is approaching an extreme level, as the bank s Global Equity Risk Appetite Indicator continues to rise. After briefly dipping into negative territory in early February, the indicator has risen five out of the last...
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2010-21-20
Tuesday, 20 Apr 2010 09:21 AM
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