Tags: wall street | vips | next | crisis

Street VIPs Fret Over Next Crisis Instead of Applauding Bull Market

gloom, crisis, troubles, meltdown, fear bankruptcy written on torn bits of paper scattered on global currency bills
(iStock)

Wednesday, 03 October 2018 08:28 AM

Now that the third quarter is over and the opportunity for window dressing has closed, we should expect to hear some interesting macro commentary from some of the most influential hedge fund managers in their quarterly investor letters.

But if the recent blurbs and think pieces from some of the biggest names in Wall Street are any indication, you may hear a lot less bull market cheering and a lot more glooming and dooming a la perennial contrarian Marc Faber.

The most recent to hit the newswires is billionaire investor Stan Druckenmiller, who in a Sept. 6 interview that was published last Friday talked about how the next financial crisis will be worse than the last because of soaring levels of debt: "We have this massive debt problem. We tripled down on what caused the crisis. And we tripled down on it globally."

This follows Oaktree Capital’s Howard Marks’s latest memo, published one week ago, that talked about how equities are in a similar position to that in 2005-06, from which they played little or no role in precipitating the crisis that came about two years later: "Instead of equities, the main building blocks for the Crisis of 2007-08 were sub-prime mortgage backed securities, other structured and levered investment products fashioned from debt, and derivatives, all examples of financial engineering. In other words, not securities and debt instruments themselves, but the uses to which they were put."

Marks continues: "This time around, it’s mainly public and private debt that’s the subject of highly increased popularity, the hunt by investors for return without commensurate risk, and the aggressive behavior described above. Thus it appears to be debt instruments that will be found at ground zero when things next go wrong." 

Others that have recently waved the caution flag include Citadel’s Ken Griffin, who last week warned that a debt-fueled buying binge is laying the seeds for the next economic downturn. DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach said in June that the soaring budget deficit in the U.S. at a time of raising rates may be setting the stage for fiscal trouble.

Meanwhile, Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio sees things playing out a bit differently from some of his peers. In a mid-September interview, he said the U.S. is two years out from a downturn, but "it’ll be more of a dollar crisis than a debt crisis, and I think it’ll be more of a political and social crisis,” with greater internal conflict than in 2008.

I’ll be curious to hear what the Einhorns (remember the "bubble basket"?) and Klarmans of the world, and any other hedge fund manager who has sounded alarms on the FAANGs, have to say about the current state of big tech, the bull market that’s very much alive and kicking, and the odds of a financial crisis touching down in the next couple of years.

© Copyright 2019 Bloomberg News. All rights reserved.

   
1Like our page
2Share
Economy
If the recent news blurbs and think pieces from some of the biggest names in Wall Street are any indication, you may hear a lot less bull market cheering and a lot more glooming and dooming a la perennial contrarian Marc Faber.
wall street, vips, next, crisis
474
2018-28-03
Wednesday, 03 October 2018 08:28 AM
Newsmax Media, Inc.
 

Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, and Newsmax World are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

NEWSMAX.COM
MONEYNEWS.COM
© Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved