Small-business optimism was well below the pre-recession average of 100 yet was only marginally up from December at 94.1, according to the National Federation of Independent Business’ (NFIB) latest index.
The index is biding time as small-business owners report that inventories are “too high” with sales and earnings trends on a downward slope.
In a positive light, owners were optimistic about their own sales (a huge 7 point jump in positive expectations) that in turn allows for more jobs, a positive trend since 2007.
Editor’s Note: 18.79% Annual Returns . . . for Life?
“Employment starts 2014 over a million below its peak in January 2008 and prospects for a major recovery in jobs are not good,”
NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg said.
“NFIB labor-market indicators have recently seen a return to normal (but not expansion) levels, encouraging in that reversals are now less likely. The average increase in workers per firm has also risen in recent quarters, indicating new job creation," he said.
"However, there are far fewer firms hiring workers than there were in 2007 and many of those still in existence have downsized," he said.
"As the midterm elections heat up, economic policy will be dominated by campaigning, not sensible strategies to improve economic growth and job creation. This will, barring a surge in economic activity undoubtedly worsen unemployment and job opportunities in the future,” he said.
Dunkelberg described this month’s result as a "treading water" reading.
The NFIB survey also found that many small-business owners fear that political uncertainty has fostered an uncertain atmosphere in which to expand.
Dunkelberg told
Fox Business Network that says it will take serious changes for the NFIB index to move by any appreciable measure.
“I didn’t expect a change, really, because nothing really happened with the things that are important to small business, like tax reform,” Dunkelberg told the network.
He said the delay of the Obamacare employer mandate won’t be enough to prompt a major move.
“A delay is not what’s interesting to them, because small business doesn’t work on one-year plans. They are multi-year thinkers and planners, because when it comes to capital spending and employees, it takes the first year to break even on a new employee,” Dunkelberg said.
Editor’s Note: 18.79% Annual Returns . . . for Life?
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