This year, an election year, will be a decent one for the economy although a recession will strike and strike hard in 2013 or in 2014 at the latest, says international investor Jim Rogers, CEO and chairman of Rogers Holdings.
The U.S. economy officially emerged from the recent recession in 2009 and since then, recovery has turned lackluster, with unemployment rates far above their pre-downturn levels.
Today is as good as it gets, with unemployment rates at over 8 percent and first-quarter gross domestic product growth coming in at 1.9 percent.
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"Every four to six years since the beginning of the Republic, we've had economic slowdowns, we've had recessions. Always. It's coming again," Rogers tells Newsmax.TV in an exclusive interview.
"You can add as well as I can — in 2013 or 2014, we're going to have another slowdown, whether it's caused by Europe or who knows what going caused it, but it's coming."
Election-year spending and manipulation of economic indicators will keep the economy appearing healthy in 2012, but that's where it ends, especially due to the enormous debt overhang threatening to exacerbate the coming downturn.
"Be very worried about 2013 and be very worried about 2014, because that's when the next slowdown comes. In 2002 we had a recession and in 2008, it was worse because the debt was so much higher," Rogers says.
"The next time is going to be even worse because the debt is so staggeringly high now. So if you are not worried about 2013, please — get worried."
What will the coming downturn look like?
Stocks will fall and currency markets will roil.
"The dollar might even go up for a while, which will feel good for all of us, because we are all Americans but other countries are going to be suffering badly. Interest rates will certainly start to go higher," Rogers says
"It's just going to be turmoil. Everybody's going to be worried, including me."
See these other exclusive excerpts from the Jim Rogers interview:
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