Raoul Pal, a former hedge-fund manager and founder of the Global Macro Investor, a macroeconomic research service, warns that the United States is at risk of another recession.
The global macro analyst told Yahoo Finance
he is seeing many of the same signs he saw back in year 2000 just before the tech bubble burst.
“It just feels like everyone is willing the market to go up, but something is going wrong in the overall underlying dynamics of the market,” he said of the overall stock market volatility this year.
“And in the meantime, the economy, which at first wasn’t clear that it was weakening, now appears to be weakening," he said. "And that was a similar set up in 2000 where everyone started getting chopped around. Nobody knew what was happening. The leadership was getting lost— Apple and other firms have lost their leadership. Back in 2000 it was Microsoft—same kind of thing,” he said.
“I look at the business cycle and I look at the business cycle by the ISM survey,” Pal said.
“What you know is that cycle is pretty predictable. And so you know in due course, the economic cycle will weaken and we’ll get a recession. And if we look at the length, it looks like it’s coming, normally it would come either now or in the next twelve months. The probability is that a recession is coming. Then we look at what happens to stock markets in a recession, they tend to fall. I’m worried that the US economy is weak, the global economy is already weak, and that’s going to bring some stress on the stock market.”
Pal isn’t alone with his fears about the economy.
Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have released reports recently that predict the stock market could see a broad selloff during the summer months, the New York Post
“We’ve had crises in the past. What’s different about this is there’s not a crisis and we still feel pessimistic,” Paul Mortimer-Lee, chief economist at BNP Paribas, told the Post. “If something nasty comes around the corner, we’re in trouble.”
“We’ve got about a 40 percent chance of recession on the next 12 months,” Mortimer-Lee said.
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