Tags: new york | fed | inflation | consumers

NY Fed Survey: Consumers' 1-Year Inflation View Steady Near 3 Percent

NY Fed Survey: Consumers' 1-Year Inflation View Steady Near 3 Percent
(Feng Yu/Dreamstime)

Monday, 13 August 2018 12:44 PM

U.S. consumers' one-year inflation expectations held steady in July at near 3 percent, while their three-year outlook on price growth eased to its lowest level since February, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey published on Monday.

The survey of consumer expectations, which the Fed considers along with other data on U.S. price pressures, showed consumers' one-year inflation outlook stood at 2.98 percent in July for a fourth consecutive month.

The survey's three-year inflation measure declined to 2.88 percent from 3.00 percent in June.

On Friday, the Labor Department said its consumer price index grew 0.2 percent in July, marking an annual increase of 2.9 percent.

The CPI core rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also increased 0.2 percent last month, bringing its year-over-year gain to 2.4 percent, which was the biggest rise since September 2008.

The improving inflation trend, together with a tightening labor market, may allow the Federal Reserve to raise key short-term interest rates two more times in 2018.

Traders widely expect the U.S. central bank to increase overnight bank borrowing costs by a quarter-point to 2.00-2.25 percent at its Sept. 25-26 policy meeting.

Consumers' one-year inflation view remained firm even as they expected some pullback in home, gasoline and medical costs over the next 12 months, according to the N.Y. Fed survey.

As for the labor market, the latest survey showed consumers expected the jobs conditions to remain robust over the next 12 months in July.

The gauge on earnings growth fell to 2.4 percent from 2.7 percent, while the barometer on household income growth edged up to 2.8 percent from 2.7 percent.

The survey's gauge on expectations of higher taxes grew for a fifth straight month to 2.2 percent since it hit a series' low of 1.5 percent in February.

Last December, Washington enacted the biggest rewrite of the federal tax code in 30 years which included a massive tax cut.

The New York Fed survey is done by a third party that taps a rotating panel of about 1,200 household heads.

© 2019 Thomson/Reuters. All rights reserved.

   
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Economy
U.S. consumers' one-year inflation expectations held steady in July at near 3 percent, while their three-year outlook on price growth eased to its lowest level since February, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey published on Monday.
new york, fed, inflation, consumers
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2018-44-13
Monday, 13 August 2018 12:44 PM
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