Tags: Mark Schofield | economy | Ukraine | Russia

Citigroup's Schofield: Global Economy 'May Be Heading Into Grumbling Discontent'

By    |   Tuesday, 18 March 2014 09:06 AM

While the turmoil surrounding Ukraine wasn't enough to derail a strong U.S. stock rally, the East-West conflict could bode ill for the global economy, says Mark Schofield, head of interest rate strategy at Citigroup.

Already the United States and Europe have imposed sanctions on Russia.

"All-in-all, it feels as if we may be heading into a summer of grumbling discontent, rather than the steady and progressive U.S.-led recovery that had become the consensus view around the start of the year," Schofield writes in a commentary obtained by CNBC.

Editor's Note:
Secret Wall Street Calendar Uses Strange ‘Crash Alert System,’ Gets 18.79% Annual Returns

The problem isn't merely the possibility of military conflict, he says.

"The concerns stem not just from raised geopolitical risk but also from fears surrounding the longer-term macroeconomic implications," Schofield explains.

"Clearly the tensions in Ukraine have been central to the recent bouts of market uncertainty, but the greater concerns going forward probably come from the risk of significant damage to economic confidence and to economic recovery than from the threat of an escalation in military tensions."

To be sure, the crisis isn't strong enough yet to do serious damage, Schofield notes.

"The current crisis seems to have the right mix of potential threats and risks to finally unsettle investors, but it probably needs to be a little more widespread before serious damage is done."

Ultimately, Russia could suffer worst of all, experts say.

"The reality is that Russia is dependent on the international economy in a way that wasn't true 10 years ago," John Beyrle, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia, tells CNNMoney.

"Fully one-half of Russia's foreign trade now . . . is with European Union countries. Russia depends on European imports to keep its stores filled, to keep the standard of living that Russians have gotten accustomed to."

Editor's Note: Secret Wall Street Calendar Uses Strange ‘Crash Alert System,’ Gets 18.79% Annual Returns

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While the turmoil surrounding Ukraine wasn't enough to derail a strong U.S. stock rally, the East-West conflict could bode ill for the global economy, says Mark Schofield, head of interest rate strategy at Citigroup.
Mark Schofield,economy,Ukraine,Russia
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2014-06-18
Tuesday, 18 March 2014 09:06 AM
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