Tags: 2020 Elections | Trump Administration | kudlow | economy | growing | trump

Kudlow: US Is 'Only Economy Really Growing'

By    |   Monday, 21 October 2019 02:09 PM

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow contends that the U.S. is the only global economy still growing.

The veteran financial guru and former Ronald Reagan adviser agrees with recent research that predicts that such economic strength will easily carry President Donald Trump into a second White House term.

“We are the only economy that is really, really growing,” Kudlow told Fox Business Network.

Kudlow said the U.S. economy “is still pretty strong. We've had headwinds and severe monetary tightening which I think now is turning around. The rest of the world, particularly Europe, has hurt our manufacturing and manufacturing exports,” said Kudlow, who worked as Reagan’s budget deputy between 1981 and 1985.

“When you look at pocketbook issues -- what Reagan used to call take-home pay -- That is booming. Stock market, booming. Unemployment about 3.5%. A 51-year low. Inflation? Barely discernable,” said Kudlow, who served as the Trump campaign's senior economic adviser.

“When you look at models that translate into presidential elections, those key variables -- take-home pay, stocks, unemployment, low inflation -- give the president tremendous advantage,” said Kudlow, assistant to the president for economic policy and director of the White House’s National Economic Council.

To be sure, Moody's Analytics economic models have missed just one presidential election since 1980 – when it slighted Trump in 2016 – and now three are pointing to an even larger Trump victory in 2020.

After all, "the economy, stupid," as James Carville legendarily said.

"If the economy a year from now is the same as it is today, or roughly so, then the power of incumbency is strong and Trump's election odds are very good, particularly if Democrats aren't enthusiastic and don't get out to vote," Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi told CNBC. "It's about turnout."

Moody's three economic models project at least 289 electoral votes for Trump and as many a 351, per Zandi.

"Our 'pocketbook' model is the most economically driven of the three," Moody's reports. "If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition. This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election."

Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the electoral vote 304-227, and economic indicators suggest President Trump is going to win 55% of the popular vote barring a "significant downturn" in the economy, according to Oxford Economics, The Washington Post reported.

"While a wide range of issues have influenced presidential elections over the last few decades, from healthcare and foreign policy, to taxation and government spending, one factor has been constant: It's the economy, stupid," Oxford Economics' Greg Daco and James Watson wrote last week, per the Post.

The primary economic indicators for an incumbent's re-election are unemployment, inflation, and real disposable income growth – all pointing strong for Trump and outweighing "negative exhaustion factor" that is hurting him, according to the Oxford Economics.

Their modeling has projected the popular vote winner accurately in all but two elections since 1948, according to the Post.

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White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow contends that the U.S. is the only global economy still growing.
kudlow, economy, growing, trump
Monday, 21 October 2019 02:09 PM
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