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JPMorgan: Odds of a Recession Starting in 12 Months Hit High

JPMorgan: Odds of a Recession Starting in 12 Months Hit High
(DPC)

By    |   Monday, 06 June 2016 10:08 AM


JPMorgan economists warn that the risk of a recession within the next 12 months hit a new high in the wake of the dismal jobs report.

"Our preferred macroeconomic indicator of the probability that a recession begins within 12 months has moved up from 30% on May 5 to 34% last week to 36% today," JPMorgan's Jesse Edgerton wrote, Yahoo Finance reported. "This marks the second consecutive week that the tracker has reached a new high for the expansion."

JPMorgan's proprietary model considers the levels of several economic indicators, including consumer sentiment, manufacturing sentiment, building permits, auto sales, and unemployment, Yahoo Finance explained.

The warning came after the Bureau of Labor Statisticssaid U.S. companies added just 38,000 nonfarm payrolls during the month. Economists were expecting 160,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.7% in May from 5.0% in April, but this was largely because 458,000 workers dropping out of the labor force.

JPMorgan notes that nonfarm payrolls isn't a factor of the model. But the unemployment rate is. Interestingly, a low unemployment rate can be considered an ominous sign.

“The unemployment rate enters the model in two ways," Edgerton explained to Yahoo Finance. "As a near-term indicator, we watch for increases in the unemployment rate that occur near the beginning of recessions. So this morning's move down in the unemployment rate lowered the recession probability in our near-term model. But we also find the level of the unemployment rate to be one of the most useful indicators of medium-term recession risk. So the move down in unemployment raises the model's view of the risk of economic overheating in the medium run and raises the 'background risk' of recession."

JPMorgan isn’t alone in its dismal economic prediction.

“America may be skidding into another recession and the latest abysmal jobs report is the latest sign of troubled waters ahead,” proclaims Newsmax Finance Insider Stephen Moore, a distinguished visiting fellow at The Heritage Foundation and economics contributor to FreedomWorks.


“If these trends continue Obama will leave office with the lowest unemployment rate ever and the fewest Americans working,” Moore wrote for Forbes.com.

“But there are other signs of illness that can’t be ignored and augur poorly for future growth. Business investment has been negative now for six months. Business profits have fallen. And small business confidence measured by the NFIB is sagging at recession area lows,” he wrote.

“What we are seeing right now is a soft business recession.”

Stephen Moore is a distinguished visiting fellow at The Heritage Foundation, economics contributor to FreedomWorks and author of "Who's the Fairest of Them All?" To find out more about Stephen Moore and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com. To read more Stephen Moore — Click Here Now.

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Economy
JPMorgan economists warn that the risk of a recession within the next 12 months hit a new high in the wake of the dismal jobs report.
jpmorgan, economy, recession, jobs
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2016-08-06
Monday, 06 June 2016 10:08 AM
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