The International Monetary Fund said Thursday that “the impact of an oil supply shock in the Middle East could be large if not compensated by supply increases elsewhere.”

“We have noted in some of our analysis previously, for example, if this were to occur that a halt of Iran’s exports to OECD economies, without being offset from other sources could trigger an initial oil price increase of around 20 to 30 percent, with other producers of emergency stock releases likely, providing some offset over time,” IMF spokesman Gerry Rice told reporters in Washington.